Polymarket predicts electoral debacle for Trump and Netanyahu in polls | Gravitas

As fear of fighting resuming in West Asia looms large, all eyes are on the upcoming Israeli general election and American midterms, whose result can reshape geopolitical dynamics.

Amid this, Polymarket has predicted an electoral debacle for U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.

Launched in 2020, Polymarket is basically one of the biggest prediction market platforms, which allows people to bet on the outcome of world events using cryptocurrency.

According to its latest projection, the Democratic Party is well poised to gain control of the U.S. Senate as well as the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm polls.

In the case of the Senate, Polymarket predicted a 65% chance of Democrats getting a majority.

The party requires a net gain of four seats to achieve this.

The prediction market also gave Democrats a 92% chance of crossing the majority mark in the 435-seat House of Representatives.

At present, Republicans hold 218 seats, whereas Democrats have 214 seats.

This comes even as Trump has been actively campaigning to ensure a victory for Republicans amid growing unease over his handling of the Iran War.

On the other hand, Netanyahu, who is seeking a record seventh term in office, is also facing a tough fight with multiple opinion polls showing an edge to his rival Gadi Eisenkot.

According to Polymarket, Eisenkot is the favourite to become Israel's next PM.

In comparison, it gave Netanyahu only a 31% chance of retaining power, whereas former PM Naftali Bennett ranks third.

Bets worth over 124 million U.S. dollars were also placed on when Netanyahu would leave office.

The prediction market projected a 38% probability of Netanyahu leaving office by end of this year.

This is not all.

In another bet, traders on Polymarket overwhelmingly favoured the Eisenkot-led Yashar Party to win more seats in Israel's parliament as compared to Netanyahu's Likud Party.

With barely a week to go for the general election in Israel, a new internal tussle has rocked the country's ruling coalition.

Israel's national security minister Ben-Gvir, who has been mired in a series of controversies, has accused Netanyahu of seeking to deny him a cabinet portfolio in the next government.

During a radio interview, he stressed that this was hurtful at a personal level.

Ben Gvir said, "I am your partner, I love you. Why do you have to go to all kinds of countries and tell them, 'without Ben-Gvir'?

Subsequently, though, Netanyahu clarified that Ben Gvir will be made a high-ranking minister in the next government as well.

His party also stressed that it will prioritise the core partners of the current coalition.

Now, even as Trump's own personal popularity has fallen lower than Netanyahu, he endorsed the Israeli PM for re-election.

During a call with the U.S. president, Netanyahu thanked him and reiterated that Israel and America had a job to finish in Iran.

Now, Trump and Netanyahu's backing for each other is seen as a bid to shore up their own votebank ahead of the polls that could define their future.

But there is divergence within the Trump administration itself, with U.S. vice president JD Vance refusing to endorse Netanyahu.

Earlier too, Vance was critical of Israel and even accused some elements within the Netanyahu-led government of running a paid campaign against him for publicly pressing for an agreement with Iran.