India's World Test Championship (WTC) Final 2025 qualification chances took a severe hit after South Africa beat Pakistan on Sunday (Dec 29) to become the first finalist. India, looking for their third consecutive WTC Final, will now have to win the ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) 3-1 to stay independent of other results.

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Also Read: WTC 2025: South Africa enter final with thrilling win over Pakistan

India's Chances for WTC Final Scenarios

India were firmly in control of their own fate, but a 0-3 loss at home vs New Zealand before BGT left them with too many fires to douse. The loss in the second BGT Test in Adelaide also added fuel to those fires, and India now stare at a huge task ahead of them to make it to the WTC Final. Here's how India can make it to the WTC Final 2025:

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India Beat Australia 3-1 in BGT

The fourth Test of the series at MCG has one day left, and Australia lead by 330+ plus runs. India would have to produce a chase for the history to win the game before the series, tied at 1-1, goes to Sydney.

If India somehow manages to win both Melbourne and Sydney ties, they'll face South Africa in the WTC Final 2025.

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India Beat Australia 2-1 in BGT

If India draw the ongoing Melbourne game and win the fifth Test in Sydney to take the series 2-1, then Australia would need to win their upcoming away two-Test series against Sri Lanka 2-0. If Australia fail to win their series in Sri Lanka, India take the second spot in the final.

India Draw BGT 2-2 vs Australia

In case Australia win the Melbourne Test and then lose the Sydney one or vice-versa, Australia will then have to lose their series against Sri Lanka at least 0-1. Any other result will see Australia taking the second WTC Final 2025 spot alongside South Africa.

India Draw BGT 1-1 vs Australia

If India and Australia play the ongoing Test and next one in Sydney as draw then Australia would have to lose the series 0-1 or draw for India to qualify.

In case Sri Lanka win the series 2-0 vs Australia after BGT ends in 1-1 draw, then both India and Australia would be knocked out, and Sri Lanka will play the WTC 2025 Final.