What are Kinzhal and Iskander-M missiles? Russia upgrades to evade US's Patriot systems in Ukraine

Russia has likely altered its ballistic missiles to bypass US-made Patriot air defence systems in Ukraine, according to a report by the Financial Times. Months of destructive airstrikes indicate that Moscow has successfully upgraded its missiles in response to bypass Ukrainian defences, current and former Ukrainian and Western officials told the news outlet.

A former Ukrainian official described the changes as “a game changer for Russia,” especially as Kyiv faces slower deliveries of US-based air defence interceptors ahead of winter. The report indicated that Moscow has modified its Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles and Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched missiles.

Both missiles currently fly on a normal trajectory before abruptly veering off or plunging steeply, manoeuvres designed to confuse and evade Patriot interceptors. The reports indicated that the interception rate of Ukraine has improved over the summer. It reached up to 37 per cent in August; however, it dropped to only 6 per cent in September, despite Russia firing fewer missiles during that period.

What are Russia's Kh-47M2 Kinzhal and Iskander-M missiles?

The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal is a nuclear-capable aero ballistic missile believed to be a modified version of the Iskander-M. It was first unveiled by Russian leader Vladimir Putin in 2018, which was launched from MiG-31K fighter jets and other aircraft, according to a report in KyivPost.

The range of Kh-47M2 Kinzhal is over 2,000 kilometres (1,243 miles), and has the efficiency to reach speeds up to Mach 10 during its final approach, making interception difficult.

Meanwhile, the Iskander system comes in two main variants. The Iskander-M is a ballistic missile that follows a high, arched trajectory before diving down at high speed. The Iskander-K, also known as the 9M727 or R-500, is a cruise missile that travels at lower altitudes on a flatter path, similar to an aircraft, which makes it more difficult to detect. Both missiles are launched from the same truck-mounted systems but exhibit different flight patterns.

According to a Western official, the first indication of Russia’s missile upgrades was the sudden decline in Ukraine’s interception rates. This assessment is supported by a US Defence Intelligence Agency report from April to June, which noted that Ukraine has struggled to consistently operate Patriot systems due to Russia’s new flight manoeuvres.

Currently, Patriot interceptors remain Ukraine’s only means of stopping Russian ballistic missiles. While Kyiv can use less advanced defences to bring down cruise missiles, Russia’s modifications have made even those increasingly challenging to intercept.