New Delhi

India has the potential to act as a global leader of non-belligerent states in deterring Chinese aggression against Taiwan, an influential think tank has said.

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The research paper published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute [ASPI] noted that India's policy settings are "flexible, not fixed" and that across the global south, including in Southeast Asia, New Delhi is seen as an "authentically independent actor, not an ally parroting American talking points". 

China recently adopted a tougher language against Taiwan, the self-ruled island nation that it considers as its own. While releasing its budget figures on March 5 in the country's rubber-stamp parliament, the National People's Congress, Beijing replaced the mention of Taiwan's "peaceful reunification" into the mainland with a "reunification" that will "be firm".

Also watch | China drops 'peaceful reunification' reference to Taiwan

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The ASPI paper warns that Chinese control of Taiwan would be "a troubling revision to the region's status quo — especially for regional states, including India". 

"China would probably be more emboldened to press other territorial claims, including those that to date have been deprioritised — such as in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh," the paper notes. 

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China has also routinely asserted its claim on the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, an affirmation consistently denounced by New Delhi. 

"Unless China becomes convinced that militarily advancing its territorial claims is unacceptable, we should expect it to act aggressively on India’s borders," Arzan Tarapore, author of the ASPI research paper, and PhD Research Scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at the Stanford University told WION. 

"If Beijing is allowed to get away with aggression against Taiwan, I cannot imagine that it will stop there," Tarapore added. 

India's disregard for Beijing's 'One China' strategic catchphrase

New Delhi maintains that its official recognition of the government in Beijing does not require continued explanation. After a short duration of using the phrase 'One China', New Delhi discontinued its use in 2009. 

The 'One China' principle has been deployed by Beijing to assert globally that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, a claim Taipei has denounced.

"India has artfully signaled that it is invested in the status quo and stability in cross-strait relations: it disregards China's usual demands to parrot the 'One China' shibboleth," the research paper noted.

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The paper concludes that once a crisis or conflict begins, the policy space shrinks drastically. However, several peacetime policy options from India could dissuade China from attacking Taiwan in the first place. 

"The diplomatic option for India is to make sure that Taiwan specifically, or Chinese aggressiveness more generally, is on the agenda in India’s diplomatic activity bilaterally and multilaterally with countries across the world, certainly in Asia, but also in more distant regions, like Europe and Africa," Tarapore told WION. 

"Beijing should be clear that the world has a common position on the inadmissibility of the use of force against Taiwan. India has exceptional influence in shaping that global opinion, and it should use that influence, out of self-interest if it seeks to be the Vishwaguru."