Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’: Who wins and loses if US president's megabill passes?

The Senate has passed US President Donald Trump's "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill after holding more than 24 hours of negotiations. Notably, the vote was 50-50, and Vice President JD Vance was there in the chamber to cast the tie-breaking vote, making it 51-50. Now, both chambers will need to agree on a final version before it goes to Trump to be signed into law.

Big tax cuts for wealthy Americans

The bill would extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, with the largest benefits going to high-income households. According to the Tax Policy Centre, households earning $460,000 or more would get over a third of the total tax cuts. More than half the cuts would go to those earning at least $217,000 annually. The average tax cut per household would be around $2,600 by 2026.

Higher child tax credit for families

The child tax credit would increase from $2,000 to $2,200 per child, providing some relief to families. This is less generous than the $2,500 credit proposed in the House version.

Tip income would no longer be taxed

The bill proposes a tax exemption for tipped workers, ending the current rule requiring tips over $20 to be reported and taxed. This would benefit millions of service industry employees across the country.

Boost for petrol car makers

Electric vehicle (EV) tax credits, currently up to $7,500, would end on 30 September under the Senate version. This move could lower demand for EVs and give traditional petrol and diesel car makers a competitive edge.

Cuts to Medicaid and food stamps

The bill proposes major reductions in social safety net programmes:

• $930 billion in cuts to Medicaid over a decade, with new work requirements for adults under 65 starting in 2026.

• $68.6 billion in cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), also known as food stamps, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

These cuts would impact millions of low-income Americans. As of March, more than 71 million people were enrolled in Medicaid, while over 42 million received SNAP benefits in 2023.

EV makers, including Elon Musk, oppose the bill

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has criticised the bill, calling it a “disgusting abomination” in a post on X. He warned that the loss of EV credits would lead to job losses and “immense strategic harm”.

Debt concerns divide conservatives

Some fiscal conservatives are also unhappy, warning about the bill’s impact on national debt. The CBO estimates that the Senate version would increase US debt by $3.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034. The House version would raise it by $2.4 trillion over the same period. The US national debt currently exceeds $36 trillion, more than 122% of GDP.

If the Senate passes its version, a joint committee will draft a compromise version to be voted on again by both chambers. If passed, the bill will go to President Trump, who is expected to sign it into law.