Israel election 2026: Three possible scenarios after October 27 polls

Israel goes to the polls on October 27 with results deciding the future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel votes through proportional representation based on the nationwide vote and it is highly unlikely that any single party would come even close to the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament, or Knesset. There are three possibilities for polls:

The parties will begin negotiations to try to reach the 61-seat threshold. After the official announcement of the results, President Isaac Herzog will consult with party representatives and name a candidate who has the chance to form a government -- not necessarily the party with the most seats Following the previous election in November 2022, it took Benjamin Netanyahu 58 days to form his government. Polls show that Netanyahu's right-wing and far-right coalition and the opposition bloc, whose most prominent figure is former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, are neck and neck, with approximately 50 to 52 seats each. This increases the chance of defections and other unexpected shifts in alliances. Israel also has two new right-wing parties that are seen as scratching the threshold of entering parliament

If no bloc manages to secure 61 seats, a candidate could attempt to govern without a majority but rather through support on an ad hoc basis by other lawmakers. In this scenario, lawmakers from Israel's Arab minority -- who make up 20 percent of the population. Polls show that two Arab-Israeli lists, the Joint List and Raam, could win 12 to 14 seats in total. Raam, led by Mansour Abbas, a kingmaker in the past, has stated its willingness to work with Eisenkot's bloc, and the Joint List has offered to provide a "safety net" for any coalition that ousts Netanyahu from power.

Given how divided Israeli politics is, a national unity government may seem unlikely. But it could still be an option if the election does not produce a clear majority. One possibility is that Netanyahu could drop his far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies and join forces with Gadi Eisenkot. The two have similar views on several security issues. Such a government would not include Arab parties.

A poll published on October 16 found that 55 per cent of Israelis would prefer a national unity government over holding another election if no clear majority emerges. Israel has tried such an arrangement before. In 2020, after three elections in less than a year, Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, another former general, agreed to share power. The deal included a plan for the two to take turns as prime minister.

However, the partnership lasted only about a year before breaking down, leading to another election. Media reports say President Isaac Herzog is working behind the scenes to bring Netanyahu and Eisenkot together if the October 27 election results in a deadlock. However, both sides could face opposition to such a deal. The opposition is campaigning against Netanyahu and has strongly criticised his record and leadership.

If no candidate is able to form a government, Israel could have to hold another election. Israel went through four elections between April 2019 and March 2021 because political parties could not agree on a stable coalition. After the election, the president will choose a candidate who he believes has the best chance of forming a government. The candidate will normally have 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. If the deadlock continues, there are other steps that could eventually lead to another election.