Iran could be winner, US a loser from UAE-Qatar tensions

A rise in tension between Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in a row over military flights threatens USstrategic interests in the Gulf and could benefit regional rival Iran.

Abu Dhabi says Qatari air force jets intercepted two UAE civilian aircraft on commercial flights to Bahrain last month, and Doha says UAE military aircraft violated its airspace on Dec. 21 and January 3.

Each denies the other's accusations and the two energy-producing states have sought to ease the dispute. The risk of a confrontation between them has increased but a war between them is unlikely, regional experts say.

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The increase in tension, seven months after the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt imposed travel and trade sanctions on Qatar over accusations -- denied by Doha -- that it supports terrorism and regional rival Iran, has alarmed Washington.

"When you have Qatari (military) planes being scrambled near a civilian airliner, it runs the risk of an incident that, even unplanned, could result in the loss of lives and escalate this into an situation Gulf countries have never had among each other," said a Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Gabriel Collins, an expert on financial sanctions at Rice University in Texas, said "military posturing" against a background of underlying tension because of the diplomatic and trade sanctions "left space for a miscalculation."

"A very small spark can, in a worst-case scenario, light a huge fire," he said.

USDefense Secretary James Mattis has said the fracturing of ties among its Gulf Arab allies hinders Washington's fight against Islamic State and "countering the spread of Iran's malign influence".

Iran has criticised the restrictions on Qatar and called for the rift to be resolved through dialogue. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has lamented what he called a "dialogue deficit" in the region.

The Gulf is a strategically important area for the United States. The USFifth Fleet is based in Bahrain and the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is a centre of its air operations against Islamic State.

"The United States considers both Qatar and the UAE to be critical regional partners," a USAir Forces Central Command spokesman in Qatar said in response to a Reuters request for comment on the incidents. He called for "meaningful solutions to reduce tensions."

The base would be crucial if the United States were to go to war with Iran, which Washington says sponsors terrorism and is a threat to stability and USinterests in the Middle East. Tehran denies the accusations.