India-Maldives ties: Inside phased replacement of Indian troops from island nation

India and Maldives held the second meeting of the high-level core group on Friday (Feb 2) in New Delhi, generating divergent statements on the crucial issue of Indian military personnel deployment in Maldives.

The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), in a press release, highlighting the collaborative efforts, said that both sides agreed on "a set of mutually workable solutions to enable continued operation of Indian aviation platforms that provide humanitarian and medvac services to the people of Maldives."

In contrast, the Maldivian press release said, "Both sides agreed that the Government of India will replace the military personnel in one of the three aviation platform by 10 March 2024, and will complete replacing military personnel in the other two platforms by 10 May 2024."

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Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy, an expert from the ORF thinktank, weighed in on the situation andhighlightedthe disparity in statements and said,"The Indian statement and Maldivian statements are quite different. India has had a consistent stand that they are finding ways to work with the Maldives on the operation of these Dornier aircraft that it has deployed there."

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While addressing the uncertainty surrounding the replacement personnel, Shivamurthy pointed out, "there is no clarity on the replacements yet."

When WION spoke to another expert about what could phased replacement mean, he pointed out, "It could be Indian bureaucrats, but it's not clear who these Indian bureaucrats are."

The expert on Maldivian politics, who chose to remain anonymous, speculated on potential replacements, stating, "Considering the skills and techniques that are required, these might be retired personnel or individuals on deputation. Another possibility could involve private pilots, but in situations requiring medical evacuations and humanitarian assistance, state forces like the Coast Guard are essential."

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"It may happen that later he sends out the Indian troops and gets another troop other than Indians... it could be Chinese. This might be the possibility," they added.

Regarding the broader geopolitical context, Shivamurthy pointed out that "there is a possibility that Muizzu is only doing it (not mentioning exactly what phased replacement mean) for the sake of upcoming elections in March."

Shivamurthy said that India has been very mature in dealing with the new administration in the last three-four months.

"India has composed its calmness all throughout," he said.

Discussing China's influence, Shivamurthy noted, "Also, there is China who has promised a lot to Muizzu. They have said that they will 'research and decide the way to offer a grace period in loan repayments over next five years' which means whoever comes to power till 2028 will have to bear what the government will have to repay. This is pushing Maldives to have a very anti-India stance."

Shivamurthy also touched upon on the broader regional dynamics.

He explained, "US and Australia have opened up their embassies in Maldives in 2023. Turkey is also upping its game in the Maldives. With all this, India also realises that it is not a good time to alienate Maldives completely."

Another key factor for India is to address its strategic concerns.

Shivamurthy pointed out, "If China makes complete inroads in the Maldives, India's Minicoy Islands are not too far away. There are broader strategic concerns that India has."

He concluded by saying, "Add to this is the extremism factor and the Islamist factor. India is obviously worried, so it does not want to lose out. The budget allocation to Maldives also shows that India is interested in keeping engagement with the new government despite its rhetoric. India just does not want Maldives to cross the red lines, and it's ready to cooperatethere."