The Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs, headed by Congress MP Shashi Tharoor, has warned that the evolving political situation in Bangladesh is India’s biggest strategic challenge since the 1971 Liberation War. The panel has cited the re-emergence of Islamist forces, a shifting domestic political landscape, and the growing influence of China and Pakistan in Dhaka as key points of concern. “If India fails to recalibrate at this moment, it risks losing strategic space in Dhaka not to war, but to irrelevance,” said the panel in its report.
The report tabled in Parliament by the Shashi Tharoor-chaired committee draws on testimony from non-governmental experts and government officials, noting that the challenge for India is deeper and long-term in nature.
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The committee noted that unlike 1971, the situation in Bangladesh right now does not pose an immediate existential threat to India but cautioned that the ongoing political transition and strategic realignment in Dhaka present challenges that could reshape India’s security and foreign policy in the long run.
The panel also flagged the decline of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League party’s political dominance as a major factor behind the uncertainty.
The Awami League won the January 2024 elections in Bangladesh by bagging 224 of 300 seats, but with just 40% voter turnout.
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The youth-led nationalist sentiment is emerging as a significant political force in Bangladesh, the report said while warning of the resurgence of Islamist groups.
The committee also emphasised that the expanding footprint of China and Pakistan in Bangladesh is a key concern for India as any shift in regional alignment could dilute India’s traditional influence in Dhaka and complicate its security.
The Ministry of External Affairs told the panel that Delhi has made concerted efforts to insulate bilateral relations from the political developments in Bangladesh, continues engagement with the interim government and supports the aspirations of Bangladeshi people.
The panel deduced that the evolving political trajectory in Bangladesh and its external alignments would require sustained attention from India.
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