Will eggs get more expensive this winter? Ethanol push puts maize supply under pressure

Eggs, long considered one of India's most affordable sources of protein, are becoming increasingly expensive. Prices have risen by around 35–40% over the past year, with farm-level prices at about Rs 7 per egg and retail prices varying significantly across markets. Recent reports have also highlighted much higher prices on some online delivery platforms. The increase comes at a crucial time for the poultry industry. Egg demand generally strengthens during the winter months, raising concerns that prices could face further upward pressure if feed costs remain high. At the centre of the issue is maize, one of the most important ingredients used in poultry feed.

Why maize matters for egg prices

Maize is a major source of energy in poultry diets. As more maize is diverted towards ethanol production under India's Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) programme, poultry producers are facing increased competition for the crop. In simple terms, maize that could have gone into poultry feed is increasingly being used by ethanol producers. That does not mean ethanol production is solely responsible for the egg-price increase. However, the additional demand has tightened the balance between supply and competing uses of maize, contributing to higher feed costs. Recent industry reports have specifically linked rising maize prices with increasing poultry-feed costs.

How much maize is going towards ethanol?

Government data illustrates how dramatically the use of maize for ethanol has expanded. According to a 2025 Lok Sabha reply by Minister of State for Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution Nimuben Jayantibhai Bambhaniya, 125.75 lakh metric tonnes of maize were utilised for ethanol production during Ethanol Supply Year (ESY) 2024–25. Maize-based distilleries had been allocated around 477.8 crore litres of ethanol during the same supply year.

The increase has been particularly sharp. Maize use for ethanol rose from around 8.3 lakh tonnes to 125.75 lakh tonnes in two years, representing an increase of more than 15 times. An allocation of roughly 125.78 lakh tonnes has also been cited for ESY 2025–26, although actual utilisation can differ from the allocation. This expansion has changed the dynamics of India's ethanol market, with maize emerging as a major feedstock as grain-based ethanol production expands.

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How does expensive maize translate into expensive eggs?

The chain is relatively straightforward: Higher ethanol demand → greater maize demand → higher maize prices → higher poultry-feed costs → higher egg-production costs → pressure on egg prices. Maize is not the only factor involved, but it is an important one. When feed becomes more expensive, poultry farmers have to absorb some of the increase or pass it through the supply chain. If production costs rise while consumer demand remains strong, retail egg prices can move higher. This is why the current egg-price increase has attracted attention beyond the poultry industry.

Winter demand could put further pressure on prices

Seasonality is another important factor. Egg consumption generally increases during the colder months as household demand strengthens and hotels, restaurants and other institutional buyers require more supplies. If maize and other feed costs remain elevated when winter demand increases, poultry farmers could face additional cost pressure. That creates the possibility that egg prices may remain elevated or rise further during the coming months. Recent industry reports have also warned of increased pressure as winter approaches.

What does the egg-price surge mean for consumers?

For consumers, the immediate impact is straightforward: one of India's most accessible sources of high-quality protein is becoming more expensive. The concern is particularly significant for households that rely on eggs as an affordable alternative to more expensive protein sources. If maize prices remain high and winter demand strengthens, egg prices could remain under pressure. At the same time, India's growing maize production could eventually help ease the supply-demand imbalance if output expands quickly enough to meet demand from ethanol, poultry, starch and other industries.

The central issue is therefore not simply that India is producing too little maize. India is producing more maize, but it is also finding more uses for every tonne of it. That competition between food, feed and fuel is at the heart of the latest egg-price shock.