Study finds humans can correctly tell when they will die. One type gets it wrong

A study conducted in Japan has shown that humans are surprisingly accurate at predicting how long they will live. If you think you will live a long life, it is highly likely that you will. However, most of those who thought they would not live as long ended up losing the bet with themselves and went on to live for several more years. The study noted that approximately 59 per cent of these people outlived their expected lifespan.

Scientist Shohei Okamoto of the University of Tsukuba and his team studied the data of the Japanese Aging and Health Dynamics Study, which surveyed adults aged 60 and above in Japan. Of the 2,447 participants who were asked what age they expected to reach, 393 said they did not know, and the rest gave an estimate ranging from 63 to 120.

After 28 years, in 2024, they compared predicted and actual lifespans of 1,514 people who had died during this period. They found that those who expected to live longer did add many more years to their lives. So, did positive thinking contribute to their longevity? Scientists cannot confirm the reasons yet, as the data is merely observational.

The magic of 80?

One thing they noted is that most of these people gave the figure as 80. This is close to Japan's combined-sex life expectancy at birth in 1996. Since most people would have known about this, the participants could have inadvertently chosen the number.

It is also possible that people who feel healthy and have a family history of long lives would by default believe that they would live for several years. Further, women and highly educated people were more likely to outlive their expectations. Another aspect the researchers noted was that participants with more years of education were less likely to choose ages divisible by 5, such as 75, 80, or 85.

However, many of them ended up underestimating their lifespans and surpassed their own expectations. The study, which is yet to be peer-reviewed, is available on medRxiv.