Heatflation: How hot temperatures increase the cost of food

Rising temperatures in Europe have a negative influence on agricultural production and are likely to increase the price of food. Will "heatflation" become frequent if warmer weather becomes the norm? The past week has seen heatwaves in Europe, where unusually hot weather has wreaked havoc across the continent. Temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius triggered flames in France, Greece, Spain, and Portugal, forcing tens of thousands of people to flee their homes. A record high of 40.3C in the UK resulted in transport congestion and worries about a medical disaster.

Even when there is no evident harm from the heat, the effects of such harsh weather can endure for a long time, especially in the case of food production. The outcome is probably "heatflation," which is when temperatures are extremely high and cause fewer harvests and increased food costs.

For instance, the heatwave that rocked Italy in the middle of July was only one of many that the nation experienced this year. As a result, the farm organisation Coldiretti has issued a warning that the drought could imperil 30–40% of the country's seasonal harvest.

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The heatwave that swept through Europe in July occurred during a vital pollination window for maize crops, endangering overall harvests and raising import requirements. At the same time, due to hot livestock, scientists predict a reduction in milk output that might linger for weeks.

Over the upcoming months, heatflation's effects can be felt. Prices for grain commodities like wheat, rice, and maize are predetermined on the commodity markets based on predictions of how well a harvest will go. According to Dominic Moran, a professor of agriculture and resource economics at the University of Edinburgh, "any expectation that there would be a shortage, however minor or great, generally expresses itself in four to six months."

The July heatwave did not significantly harm as many crops as it could have because the harvest season has already begun for many types of vegetables. However, given the current state of the economy, heatflation could still have a significant influence.

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