El Niño 2026 heats up to become strongest in 1,000 years
&imwidth=600&imheight=450&format=webp&quality=medium "El Niño 2026 heats up to become strongest in 1,000 years")
World Meteorological Organization has warned El Nino will continue till February 2027. Photograph: (World Meteorological Organization)
El Niño 2026 appears to be the strongest the world has seen in 1,000 years. Ocean surface temperatures have already surpassed a three-decade average without even peaking. It will continue to strengthen, meaning the worst is yet to come.
The El Niño in 2026 is on course to become the largest in at least 1,000 years. Scientists have found that even before its peak, it has already shattered temperature records, with a peak at what is yet to come. The latest data shows that the sea surface temperature at the centre of the phenomenon is 3.05 degrees Celsius above the average for 1991–2020. The previous record was 3.02 degrees Celsius set in November 2015. It is not far from a possible peak of 4.1 degrees Celsius in November and December.
El Niño has wreaked havoc across the world this year. Heatwaves slammed Europe and the United States, the monsoon pattern in India was disrupted, wildfires engulfed large parts, and floods hit other places. Earlier in the year, scientists had warned that the El Niño this year would be the worst in 150 years. But now it looks set to shatter 1,000-year records.
Climate scientists say that every El Niño has continued to strengthen after mid-September, and the same can be expected this year as well. "El Niño typically peaks in the winter months, most commonly in November or December," climate scientist Zeke Hausfather wrote in a blog for Carbon Brief, calling it "remarkable" because of "how early in the calendar year it is occurring."
El Niño brought extreme heat, with temperatures touching 45 degrees Celsius in part of Europe. Copernicus Climate Change Service data shows that August 2026 was the warmest one since records started. Global average temperatures for the first eight months of 2026 are already 1.22 degrees Celsius above the average marker.
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El Niño winter
NASA, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and climate experts across the world saw El Niño with all signs of becoming strong as the year progresses. It is also expected to bring a brutal winter to the United States, with at least six states expected to witness heavy snowfall. Meanwhile, a few other states will remain dry. California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona are at risk of heavy snowfall triggered by El Niño.
No major Atlantic hurricanes
Meanwhile, the current hurricane season has seen no major developments. It is rare to have no hurricanes until September 15, and experts have also attributed this to this year's El Niño. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data, this is the longest stretch without an Atlantic hurricane since at least 1966.
WMO says El Niño will stay till Feb 2027
El Niño has been underway since June and will last into next year. The WMO warned earlier in September that it will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, and impact rainfall and temperature patterns, and floods, drought and extreme heat. WMO Forecasts have given it a near 100 per cent chance of persisting through February 2027.
