India's BJP in 2024: After a tough general election, party resumes winning streak

New Delhi, India

For India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the year 2024 was marked by topsy-turvy political developments.

The year started on a high note with the grand opening of the Ram Temple at Ayodhya in a star-studded, high-on-emotions consecration ceremony led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 

Building the temple at Ramjanmabhoomi in Ayodhya had been the BJP’s most prominent promise to its Hindu votebank for decades, and it became true in 2024.

There was euphoria among the masses, and most BJP leaders were sure that it would carry through till the elections a few months ahead.

But that was not to be. 

What some sceptics within the BJP had said in hushed tones—that the ceremony was held a bit too early and should have been timed closer to the polls—turned out to be true.

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Among other things, the Congress party’s election promise of depositing Rs 8,500 in the bank accounts of women each month turned the tide considerably.

Eventually, the Congress-led INDIA alliance won in some crucial states, the most notable being Uttar Pradesh (UP), the state most crucial electorally, as it elects 80 MPs in the 543-member Lok Sabha.

Overconfidence cost Yogi dearly; the BJP fell short of majority

It is said that “The way to Delhi goes through UP.” The saying draws proof from the fact that eight former prime ministers have represented Uttar Pradesh. After two huge consecutive victories in 2014 and 2019 general elections and two back-to-back wins in 2017 and 2022 UP assembly polls, the BJP got overconfident, riding on the hope of Ayodhya temple grand opening having a massive influence on voting.

UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath was BJP’s ‘star campaigner’ and went around the country, possibly unaware that his party was losing ground in his very own backyard.

In 2014, BJP had won 71 Lok Sabha seats in UP and got 62 in 2019, as the state played a crucial role in getting it a majority on its own both times.

In 2024, the Samajwadi Party led the UP tally with 37, while the BJP won just 33 out of the 80 seats.

As a result, the party fell short of winning a majority on its own, and PM Narendra Modi had to depend on the NDA allies to be back in power again after all the hype of the slogan of winning 400+ seats.

Maharashtra mauling took majority mark further away

Similarly, in Maharashtra, the BJP won just nine seats while the main opposition party, the Congress won 13. 

BJP’s alliance partners too didn’t fare well: Shiv Sena won seven seats, and the NCP just one.

In 2019, BJP had won 25 seats, and along with the then undivided Shiv Sena’s 18 seats, the NDA had bagged 41 out of the total 48 seats, and quite a difference it proved to be. 

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So overall, for the first time since 2014, the BJP failed to get a majority on its own, winning just 240 seats, 63 less than 303 in 2019, and 32 less than a clear majority.

In fact, adding the seats BJP lost in UP and Maharashtra would have again resulted in a clear majority for it on its own.

BJP also lost seven seats in West Bengal as its tally came down from 19 in 2019 to 12 in 2024.

Fortunately, the NDA won 294 seats, more than the 272 seats required for a simple majority.

The INDIA alliance, led by the Congress party, won 232 seats.

BJP breached its final frontier, Kerala

The BJP had been struggling to make a mark in Kerala, for long a bastion of the Left, but that changed in 2024 when the party’s Suresh Gopi won the Thrissur constituency by a margin of 74,686 votes and became the party’s first Lok Sabha parliamentarian from Kerala.

In total, the results were a setback for Modi, who had always secured majorities in elections as chief minister of Gujarat and prime minister till now.

Undaunted Modi declares victory

Undaunted by the highly unexpected dip in the number of seats, PM Narendra Modi declared victory for his alliance, claiming it was a mandate to move forward with his agenda and pledged to keep his election promise of turning India’s economy into the world’s third biggest.

Modi, however, did succeed in matching one record, becoming only the second PM after Jawaharlal Nehru to retain power for the third time, but now has to depend on the support of TDP, JD(U), Shiv Sena, and NCP.

Overconfidence and overexposure

Most analysts blamed the overconfidence of BJP leadership and the ‘Abki baar 400 paar’ (which translates to: This time more than 400 seats) slogan, saying it bred smugness in the party leaders and workers and resulted in the jolt.

Another factor was the overexposure of PM Modi. In branding and marketing, overexposure is defined as an excessive amount of media coverage, resulting in the audience losing interest in the message.

The number of interviews PM Modi gave to media channels during the campaign and polling was a bit too much. 

Almost no news channel was left out: one would switch on the TV and Modi would be there giving an interview, whichever was the channel.

BJP wrests Odisha from BJD, unseats Naveen Patnaik

In the simultaneous assembly elections, the BJP won Odisha spectacularly, deposing the three-time CM Naveen Patnaik.

In alliance with TDP, the BJP also won Telangana assembly elections, while Congress won Andhra Pradesh.

Hat-trick in Haryana

Once the dust settled on general elections in the summer, it was time for BJP to prove its mettle in some state assembly elections.

In Haryana, BJP got the first relief from the drubbing it faced in general elections.

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The party secured a historic third term in the northern state, winning 48 seats and preventing a Congress comeback.

BJP stormed back to power with a clear majority in the 90-member assembly, while the Congress got 37, though their vote share was almost equal at 39.94 per cent and 39.09 per cent respectively.

BJP and Congress almost captured four-fifths of the entire vote base, making the poll a bipolar affair. The Aam Aadmi Party proved dud and drew a blank despite campaigning aggressively.

Jammu and Kashmir gets an elected govt after Article 370 revocation

Elections were held in Jammu and Kashmir for the first time after the removal of Articles 370 and 35(A) and witnessed a high turnout.

The results in Jammu and Kashmir were on expected lines, where the BJP did well in the Jammu region. The National Conference won 42 out of the 90 seats, while BJP bagged 29. All other parties, including Congress and PDP, were in single digits.

But as a consolation, BJP had the largest vote share of 25.64 per cent, more than National Conference’s 23.43 per cent despite the big difference in their seats.

Stunning comeback in Maharashtra

The Maharashtra assembly elections later in the year saw the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance secure a sweeping victory by winning 235 seats. 

The BJP emerged as the single-largest party with 132 seats, followed by Shiv Sena at 57 and NCP at 41 seats.

It was a huge turnaround from the parliamentary elections five months ago. 

In the western state, Shiv Sena's Uddhav Thackeray had already lost his claim of being the inheritor of Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy after aligning with Congress and the NCP to grab power earlier. 

As for the NCP, the people of Maharashtra chose to side with Ajit Pawar than Sharad Pawar in the family clash over the party reigns.

BJP’s choice of alliance and strategy in Maharashtra worked out to perfection.

As part of the Mahayuti, BJP had contested 148 seats, Shiv Sena 83 and Ajit Pawar's NCP 59 seats.

There doesn’t seem to be even a remote chance of this alliance breaking up anytime soon, since both Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar know that the alliance with the BJP has helped them cement their places in the hearts of Maharashtra voters as the leaders of their parties.

In Jharkhand, the BJP put up a good fight and won 21 out of the 81 seats, far short of the majority mark, but came second behind the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) tally of 34. 

Surprisingly, and in sharp contrast to the results, BJP had got 33.18 per cent of the total polled votes, almost 10 per cent more than JMM, which polled 23.44 per cent. 

This was a consolation for the BJP leadership and kept alive its hope of winning power in next election, perhaps.

Modi govt sailing smoothly

The year 2024 saw a return to coalition government at the centre. Even though India has witnessed chaotic coalition governments since the 1990s, Modi 3.0 has so far not seen any hiccups and is sailing unhindered.

One reason may be that the allies have been themselves facing an existential threat. While JD (U) is bothered by RJD in Bihar, TDP was also looking for a revival in Telangana. Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar have to fortify their own bases and their claims to legacy, so it is in the interest of all to be solidly behind the BJP.

2024: A mixed bag for the saffron party

In most of the elections in 2024, the BJP either won or bagged the highest vote share. 

The trend proves that BJP is still the preferred choice of most voters and the Lok Sabha poll verdict was just a blip in its trajectory.

As for the year ahead, a lot will depend on how effectively PM Modi is able to steer the economic growth in difficult times as wars continue, threaten to escalate, and an unpredictable administration of Donald Trump takes over the reigns in the US in the new year.

Will 2025 indeed be a happy new year for the BJP?

Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.