&imwidth=800&imheight=600&format=webp&quality=medium "Who will win Assam Elections? Will BJP’s Himanta Biswa Sarma become CM again? Here's what pre-poll surveys predict")
The ruling NDA, led by the BJP, is projected to secure a decisive victory in the upcoming Assam Assembly elections, according to the latest Vote Vibe survey. The alliance is expected to win between 87 and 97 seats in the 126-member Assembly, comfortably crossing the majority mark. In contrast, the INDIA bloc spearheaded by the Indian National Congress (INC) is likely to secure only 26–36 seats, indicating a significant gap between the ruling alliance and the opposition. Elections in Assam will take place on April 9. In terms of vote share, the NDA is estimated to secure around 44 percent, compared to 36.7 percent for the opposition. This sizable margin highlights a clear electoral advantage and reflects sustained support for the ruling coalition across key voter segments in the state. Currently, the NDA holds 86 seats in the Assembly, while Congress has 22.
The IANS-Matrize Opinion Poll also points to a strong NDA performance, projecting 96–98 seats with a 43–44 percent vote share. The Congress is expected to secure 26–28 seats with around 39–40 per cent vote share. Other parties are unlikely to win enough seats to challenge the NDA or play a decisive role in government formation.
Himanta Biswa Sarma dominates CM preference
BJP's Himanta Biswa Sarma continues to emerge as the most popular choice for Chief Minister. In both the earlier and latest surveys, nearly half of the respondents (47–48percent) expressed their preference for his leadership. His governance, political outreach, and strong visibility appear to play a crucial role in shaping voter sentiment. Meanwhile, Congress' Gaurav Gogoi remains the primary challenger, with about 37.7percent support. Additionally, around 35percent of respondents consider him a viable second choice, indicating some level of acceptance but not enough to rival Sarma’s dominance. Around 42.7percent of respondents expressed satisfaction with the ruling alliance, compared to 36.1percent who supported the opposition.
Key issues influencing voters
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Despite the NDA’s lead, several critical issues continue to shape the electoral narrative. Voters identified unemployment and corruption as top concerns. Additionally, the demand for a fair investigation into the death of popular singer Zubeen Garg has emerged as a significant emotional and political issue. About 42.6% of respondents believe that this matter could influence voting behaviour in the upcoming elections.
What is the voting date in Assam?
For the 2026 Assam Assembly elections, the Election Commission of India initiated the process by issuing the official gazette notification on March 16, covering all 126 constituencies. Voting will be held in a single phase on April 9, with the counting of votes scheduled for May 4. The current Assembly’s tenure is set to conclude on May 20, 2026. Candidates were allowed to file their nominations until March 23, followed by scrutiny on March 24, while the deadline for withdrawal was March 26. In the previous 2021 elections, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) retained power, securing a second consecutive term.
