India's Punjab may become 'water deficit desert' due to climate change: Study

The northern Indian state of Punjab, known for its bumper agricultural output, is facing the wrath of climate change, a new research by the Punjab Agricultural University (PAU) has revealed.The scientists studiedthe monsoon data and patterns over the past five decades to conclude that the rainy season was now staying far longer than the normal duration but the amount of rainfall was decreasing while remaining unevenly distributed.

Farmers in Punjab grow some of the most water-guzzling crops in the country and a bountiful monsoon season is necessary to ensure that the yield is proper. However, in the absence of required rain, lack of crop diversification and indiscriminate pumping of groundwater - Punjab might be heading towards becoming a 'water deficit desert', the study showed.

“During the monsoon season, paddy is the main crop grown in the state. The area under paddy has increased from 0.6 Mha during 1970 to 3.01 Mha during 2018, an increase of 400 per cent. To irrigate this water-guzzling crop, farmers are dependent either on monsoon rainfall or on underground water," read the study, conducted bysenior agro meteorologists Sarabjot Kaur Sandhu and Prabhjyot Kaur.

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17 years of deficient monsoon rainfall

The study added that monsoon patterns had aggravated in the last two decades (2001 onwards), compoundingthe problem. Between 2001 and 2020, Punjab recorded deficient monsoon rainfall in 17 years, despite monsoon lasting more than the normal 77 days.

"But over the last two decades, the duration of monsoon currents has increased but the rate of rainfall is well below the average of 6 mm/day. Also, the distribution of the rainfall during the season is highly variable during the four months. The sudden and heavy shower of rainfall received in a short span of time is not only declining the water productivity of crops but also hampering the recharging of underground aquifers."

Explaining how the rainfall was affecting the region, the study stated that the northeastern regions of the state lying in the foothills of Shivalik (the lowest range of the Himalayas) were receiving less rainfall over the years, which skewed the average distribution statistic.

The low to medium rainfall in June, and July meant that groundwater resources were heavily stretched out while heavy rainfall in September, delayed the maturity and harvesting of the paddy crop.

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The study also notes that erratic changes in the rainfall pattern have led to a shift in the climate ofIndo-Gangetic plains (IGP) and northeast India - meaning Punjab, which lies in IGP, and already has a semi-arid and subtropical climate was heading towards a relatively arid regime.

Up until Sunday (July 23), Punjab had received 57.7 per cent of the normal rainfall of the entire monsoon season with two months to go.Punjab recorded 248.1 mm of rain to date against the normal required 168.3 mm, representing a 47 per centsurplus. However, experts are wary that the rainfall may have come in short, excessive bursts that cause more damage to the crops, instead of low, continuous intensity.

(With inputs from agencies)

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