File photo. Photograph:( Reuters )
The Long Range Forecast (LRF) is the operational monsoon season forecast issued by the weather department from June to September for the entire country.
Monsoon is expected to be normal in rainfall season, the India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday in its forecast.
"This year we will have a normal monsoon. Quantitatively the monsoon rainfall, during the monsoon season 2020, is expected to be 100% of its long period average with an error of +5 or -5% due to model error," said Madhavan Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).
India is reeling from COVID 19 pandemic and a bad monsoon could affect the agrarian supply chain. The Indian government has already relaxed rules for agrarian workers so that grains can be harvested.
A good monsoon can buffer inflation and ensure availability of grain in rural areas. It also ensures that farmers retain purchasing power which has got seriously affected because of a nationwide lockdown.
The year 2019 witnessed a normal monsoon season while in 2018, the monsoon registered a 9% deficit.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued the first stage Long Range Forecast (LRF) for the south-west Monsoon season (June-September) rainfall through online video conferencing and live streaming from the national capital as part of social distancing measures put in place in response to the COVID-19 outbreak.
The LRF is the operational monsoon season forecast issued by the weather department from June to September for the entire country. This forecast, however, does not include regional level rainfall or specify quantum rainfall for the forecast period each year, the MeT department issues LRF in two stages.
The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second one is issued in June. These forecasts are issued using Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS) and dynamical coupled Ocean-Atmospheric models.
(With inputs from ANI)