India set to register driest August since 1901 as El Nino conditions intensify
Representational image of lack of rainfall in India.
India is set to mark the driest August since 1901 which is clearly being seen as a result of intensifying El Nino conditions by the senior meteorologists.
This year, the monsoon is also likely to end up being the driest since 2015 as the country recorded a 13 per cent rainfall deficit, officials said.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) official said that after recording a precipitation deficit of 32 per cent in August and prediction of only subdued rainfall activity in the next three days across the country, India is set to record the driest August since 1901.
ALSO READ |India nearing 8-year low in monsoon rainfall:Sources
The month of August recorded 254.9 mm of rainfall, which is 30 per cent of the precipitation received in the monsoon season. The country registered a rainfall deficit of 25 per cent in August 2005, 24.6 per cent in 1965; 24.4 per cent in 1920; 24.1 per cent in 2009 and 24 per cent deficit in 1913, as per the IMD data.
IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that El Nino is the main reason behind below-normal rainfall in August, apart from the "unfavourable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is known to reduce convection in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea".
El Nino is the climatic change that takes place due to the warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America. Generally, El Nino is related to the dry weather and weakening monsoon winds in India.
El Nino impacts two low-pressure systems
"The favourable phase of MJO results in rainfall even if there is no low-pressure system. July recorded above-normal rainfall due to the favourable phase of MJO," Mohapatra stated.
He added that the prevailing El Nino conditions impacted only two low-pressure systems, among the five, which developed over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). "Another reason for below-normal rainfall in August was a lower number of low-pressure systems in the South China Sea and they, too, moved northward," he further stated.
Low-pressure systems that develop over the South China Sea typically move westward and reach the north BoB after crossing Thailand and Vietnam.
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Because of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the outlook for the month of September does not look very bleak, said Madhavan Rajeevan, former secretary at the Ministry of Earth Sciences, while speaking to PTI.
"September is not expected to be as bad as August. Models suggest the September rainfall will be on the lower side of the normal," he added. The senior meteorologist held El Nino as the primary reason for the high rainfall deficit recorded in August.
"The absence of the positive phase of MJO must have also played a marginal role," he stated. Meanwhile, Mohapatra said, "Rainfall in September is likely to be on the lower side (94 per cent to 99 per cent) of the normal (422.8 mm).”
(With inputs from agencies)
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