India: Exit polls suggest BJP, allies to win in Nagaland, Tripura; uncertainty looms over Meghalaya

Three Indian states in the country’s northeast region held their assembly elections on Monday (February 27). The exit polls began hours later after Meghalaya and Nagaland finished their voting, earlier Monday while Tripura had finished polling on February 16. So far, the exit polls have suggested that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies will lead in two states while there will be a close race for Meghalaya.

All three states have 60 seats in their assembly where 31 seats are needed to secure the majority. The elections in Meghalaya and Nagaland took place across 59 constituencies in each of the two states, early Monday. However, one seat in Meghalaya was adjourned due to the death of a candidate while no poll was held for one seat in Nagaland as there was only one candidate.

According to recent data from the Election Commission, the turnout in both states was over 80 per cent with Meghalaya at 81.57 per cent and Nagaland at 85.90 per. Meanwhile, Tripura recorded nearly 87.6 per cent in the one-day assembly elections when it held the polls nearly two weeks ago. In Meghalaya, the polling took place across 3,419 stations and 2,291 in Nagaland.

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The EC in its statement after the polls also said that it seized 23 times more freebies during the Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura elections than it did in 2018. The freebies included cash, alcohol, precious metals and even drugs worth at least $1.70 billion (Rs.169.6 crore). The EC also noted that there was no repolling needed at any of the 5,710 stations and thanked polling personnel for conducting the elections peacefully.

Exit polls for Meghalaya assembly elections

As per exit polls by Times Now-ETG Research, 29 seats were estimated for Others, followed by 22 for the National People’s Party (NPP), BJP with five, and Congress with three seats.

Zee News-Matrize estimates 24 seats will be secured by NPP, while 22 will be with Others, followed by approximately nine seats for BJP, and four for Congress.

India Today-Axis My India predicted that 23 seats will be secured by Others, followed by 21 seats by NPP while Congress and BJP will secure nine and six seats respectively.

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The exit polls published by several agencies late Monday have led many to believe that the northeastern state will witness a hung assembly this year. This would not be the first time that has taken place in Meghalaya as in 2018 there was no single party or alliance which managed to secure a majority which led incumbent Chief Minister Conrad Sangma to form a coalition with United Democratic Party (UDP), BJP and others to form the state government.

This time around Sangma’s NPP has stood in second place in most polls and after the exit polls, the current CM once again hinted that if they fall short of the majority the party will form an alliance.

Exit polls for Tripura assembly elections

India Today-Axis My India predicted that BJP and its ally, Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT) will manage to secure 40 seats, followed by TMP at 12 and 16 seats may be won by Left and its ally Congress.

Times Now-ETG estimated 24 seats for BJP and its ally, followed by 21 for Left and its ally, 14 for TMP, and one seat will be taken by Others.

According to Zee News-Matrize exit polls, BJP and ally can secure 31 seats, followed by Left and ally at 16, while 12 seats are predicted for TMP and one for Others.

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Two of the three exit polls in Tripura show BJP and its ally IPFT will manage to secure the majority with the Left-Congress alliance quite behind on the estimates. Meanwhile, Times Now-ETG predicted that it might be a close race and that a hung assembly was a possibility.

Exit polls for Nagaland assembly elections

India Today-Axis My India predicted 43 seats for BJP and its ally Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), followed by Others at 10, five seats for Naga People’s Front (NPF), and one seat for Congress.

Times Now-ETG estimates at least 44 seats for BJP-NDPP followed by nine for Others, six for NPF, and none for Congress.

Zee News-Matrize predicts that BJP-NDPP will gain 39 seats, Others may secure 15, while three were estimated for NPF, and two for Congress.

As the exit polls indicate, BJP and its ally NDPP are poised to secure a comfortable majority, the former contested for 20 seats while the latter sent candidates for the rest of the 40 seats, as a part of their coalition.

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However, exit polls are not always accurate and are often vastly different from the actual outcome. The EC will announce the result of the elections on March 2. Notably, this round of assembly elections is deemed important as these are the first of back-to-back elections across the country in different states. This will also be followed by six other state elections in 2023 leading up to the general elections, next year.

(With inputs from agencies)

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