New Delhi, India
India's General Elections are just five months away, and will take place after the conclusion of assembly elections in five states: Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Mizoram and Telangana. A total of 83 Lok Sabha seats are held by these states, of which 65 are located in the Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh (29), Chhattisgarh (11), and Rajasthan (25).
But what about the two largest national parties in the nation, Bharatiya Janata Party and Indian National Congress? How would this affect them in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections? Let us see here.
The reason BJP needs two wins
Sentiment towards or away from the ruling BJP in the lead-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections would undoubtedly be influenced by the assembly election results.
If Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP prevails, it would indicate that his popularity with voters has not diminished as much as is thought in the wake of his campaign's failure to overcome strong anti-incumbency sentiment in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka.
A victory in the state elections will be seen as a guarantee that the BJP, regardless of the strategies used by its rivals, will continue to be the most popular party to win a third term in central government in 2024.
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“The stake for the BJP is very huge in these elections as it will set a tone for the upcoming Lok Sabha election," Prof Sanjay Kumar, co-director at Lokniti CSDS told WION.
"If BJP manages to win at least two states this will boost their morale and will be a stronghold for the party. If not, then it may put up an impression of the diminishing Modi popularity in front of the entire nation,” said the political analyst and psephologist.
The negative narrative for opposition parties will be reinforced if they face defeats in Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, and fail to retake power in Rajasthan.
Possibilities for Rahul Gandhi and Congress
At the moment, the BJP rules Madhya Pradesh, while the Congress rules Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The Congress and the BJP received just 0.5% of the vote in Rajasthan's 2018 Assembly election, yet won 100 seats to the BJP's 73. The Congress won 68 out of 90 seats in Chhattisgarh. Although the Congress won 114 seats to the BJP's 109 in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP managed to unseat the Congress government in 2020 by persuading Jyotiraditya Scindia to defect.
However, these states have a track record of surprising people.
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Congress leader Rahul Gandhi being an important leader, if Congress comes to power in one, two or three states, it will certainly boost his image, said Sanjay Kumar.
"If that happens, it will certainly act as a catalyst in the 2024 elections. Chattisgarh seems like a good victory for Congress. It is heading towards a win in the state. In other states, Congress is facing a challenge.”
An overview of states
In Rajasthan's 2018 Assembly election, there was a meager 0.5% difference in the vote shares between the Congress and the BJP. But the strike rate of Congress was far higher. Against the BJP's 73 seats, it secured 100.
With the help of the anti-incumbency movement against three-term Chief Minister Raman Singh, the Congress crushed the BJP in Chattisgarh, winning 68 of 90 seats.
In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress secured five additional seats in 2018 compared to the BJP, while receiving 0.12% fewer votes.
The Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana remains optimistic about K Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) winning a third term. However, the Congress has succeeded in unseating the BJP as the main opposition following its stunning victory in neighboring Karnataka, where minority votes were extremely important.
In Mizoram, the Congress and the BJP-allied Mizo National Front are in a straight-up race, with the Zoram People's Movement (ZPM) viewed as the main opposition. The Bharat Rashtra Samiti, led by K. Chandrashekar Rao, appears to be ahead in Telangana.
The implications for 2024
Parties can also use these surveys to refine their agendas and methods in an effort to win over as many voters as possible. Given that women have outnumbered men in several constituencies when it comes to exercising their right to vote, it is obvious that the BJP and Congress are focusing on winning over more female votes this time.
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Given that women have surpassed males in several constituencies in terms of voting participation, it is obvious that the BJP and Congress are focusing on winning over more female voters this time around.
The narrative surrounding the General Elections, according to experts, may have an impact on state votes. In light of opposition parties uniting behind the INDIA alliance for the Lok Sabha elections, there may be a concentration of votes in certain seats, but there may be dispersion in other areas. The BJP and Congress have also engaged in direct combat in these three states.