Extreme heat-related heart casualties in US projected to double by midcentury at current emission pace: Study

A new study has highlighted the deadly effects of extreme heat on the heart and suggests that the impact of climate change may lead to a surge in heat-related cardiovascular deaths in the US over the coming decades. Vulnerable groups, including Black adults, seniors, and urban residents, are at a higher risk.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency defines extreme heat days as "a period of two to three days of high humidity and temperatures above 90 degrees". Such days are increasing every year now.

Between 2008 and 2019, the heat index, which accounts for both temperature and humidity, reached at least 90 degrees on an average of 54 days each summer in the US.

During these scorching days, nearly 1,700 excess cardiovascular deaths were recorded annually, according to a study published in the journal Circulation.

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If fossil-fuel development continues to expand globally and the world only makes minimal efforts to reduce planet-warming pollution, the researchers predict that the US could face 80 days of extreme heat each summer, resulting in a staggering increase in heat-related cardiovascular deaths, exceeding 5,491 excess deaths per year.

Even in a more optimistic scenario where climate change mitigation measures are enacted, the US could still experience 71 days of extreme heat each year, leading to a 2.6 times increase in heat-related mortality. By the middle of the century, this scenario could result in more than 4,320 excess cardiovascular deaths linked to excessive heat.

Dr Lawrence Fine, a senior adviser at the National Institutes of Health's National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, stated that heart disease is the leading cause of death in the US overall, and while extreme heat currently accounts for a relatively small fraction of total cardiovascular deaths, the increasing prevalence of hot days necessitates risk mitigation.

Heat-related deaths tend to be concentrated during heatwaves and impact individuals who are more vulnerable due to their health conditions or other factors.

Consequently, these episodes can strain emergency rooms and the broader healthcare system and pose a severe threat to specific individuals.

The study's projections are based on population growth, migration trends, and greenhouse gas emissions data from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The analysis looked ahead to the years 2036 through 2065, using county-level data for the 48 contiguous states in the US.

The summer of 2023 has provided a stark example of the dangers posed by extreme heat. Maricopa County, Arizona, reported a significant number of deaths due to heat-associated illness, making this year the deadliest for heat deaths since the county began tracking them in 2006. Many of these deaths occurred as the Southwest experienced record-breaking temperatures and prolonged periods of extreme heat.

The human heart is particularly susceptible to the effects of extreme heat. When the body overheats, the heart has to work harder to maintain a stable temperature, which can be especially dangerous for individuals with pre-existing cardiovascular conditions. Longer exposure to heat can lead to increased inflammation and blood clotting, raising the risk of heart attacks and strokes.

The study also emphasises the disproportionate impact of extreme heat on Black adults, who could face a six-fold increase in heat-related cardiovascular deaths in the coming decades compared to a projected 2.4 times increase among White adults. Seniors over the age of 65 and individuals living in metropolitan areas are also expected to be disproportionately affected. Demographic shifts, including an ageing population and urban growth, may exacerbate these vulnerabilities.

Addressing the issue of heat-related deaths requires targeted efforts to protect those who are most vulnerable. Solutions include access to cooler environments, tree cover, and healthcare access.

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