Oil prices set for muted open after Trump-Putin Alaska meeting
&imwidth=600&imheight=450&format=webp&quality=medium "Oil prices set for muted open after Trump-Putin Alaska meeting")
Miniatures of oil barrels and a rising stock graph are seen in this illustration. Photograph: (Reuters)
Analysts say uninterrupted Russian exports keep prices tilted bearish in the short term, though Brent and WTI remain range-bound as traders await Trump’s upcoming meeting with Zelenskiy and Europe’s response.
Global oil prices are expected to open on a muted note this week after US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska, where the two leaders discussed a direct peace deal for Ukraine. As per Reuters, Trump said that both sides had agreed to pursue a “fully-fledged peace deal” rather than a temporary ceasefire. This marks a shift from the earlier US-backed position, which aligned with Ukraine and its European allies in seeking an interim ceasefire first.
Tariffs on hold, Russian oil flows undisturbed
In a significant policy move, Trump also indicated that he would hold off imposing tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, such as China. The US president had previously threatened to sanction Moscow directly and impose secondary sanctions on major buyers like China and India if no progress was made on ending the Ukraine war.
Analysts say this stance could ease concerns of immediate disruption to Russian oil exports. Ajay Parmar, an analyst at ICIS, told Reuters that uninterrupted Russian supply should be bearish for prices. “It is worth noting that we think the impact of this will be minimal though and prices will likely see only a small dip in the very near term as a result of this news,” Parmar added.
Markets waiting for clarity
Attention now turns to Washington, where Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday. According to a Reuters source, European leaders have also been invited to join the talks.
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Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, said market watchers will be closely tracking European reactions. “For now, Russian supply disruption risks will remain contained,” he noted.
Oil prices before the meeting
Before the Alaska talks, Brent crude settled at $65.85 a barrel on Friday, while US West Texas Intermediate closed at $62.80 – both nearly $1 lower. Analysts say traders are waiting for a clearer outcome from the negotiations before making any big moves.
Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, told Reuters that until a deal emerges, prices will likely stay stuck in a narrow range. “What we do know is that the threat of immediate sanctions on Russia, or secondary sanctions on other countries is put on hold for now, which would be bearish,” he said.
Russia’s redirected oil flows
Since the imposition of Western sanctions – including a seaborne oil embargo and price caps on Russian crude – Moscow has shifted its oil exports towards Asia, particularly China and India. The Alaska meeting outcome suggests this redirection will continue unhindered for now.
With supply risks contained and sanctions pressure temporarily eased, oil markets are expected to lean bearish in the near term. But traders remain cautious, with much depending on the outcome of Trump’s upcoming meeting with Zelenskiy and Europe’s response to the new US approach.
(With inputs from the agencies)