Global oil prices tumbled briefly on Monday from their five-month high at the end of last week after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order waiving key sanctions and tariffs under the newly enacted Lindsey Graham Act. Brent Crude is trading at $108.63/barrel, falling from the peak of $110 hit on Friday, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is at $101.53 per barrel, up from an intraday low of $99.24 per barrel.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that the administration is using a 60-day window to evaluate the macroeconomic impact of the Russian fuel waiver. This short timeline injects major uncertainty into the market, as algorithms are struggling to price in whether this extra supply is permanent or temporary.Also Read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/france-yellow-vests-new-protests-october-24-31-1792419854640">France's Yellow Vests announce 'Act II' of protests on October 24, 31</a>Despite Trump's relaxation, the oil market remains stubbornly tight. While the announcement initially triggered profit-taking, causing Brent to slide over 2% to $107.57 and WTI to slip below $100, the drop was incredibly short-lived. Investors realised that despite the US sanctions waiver, long-term structural scarcity has not gone away. They rushed in to buy the dip, so the price did not tumble much. Further, just hours before the waiver announcement, Ukrainian drone strikes hit an oil terminal in St. Petersburg, Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump continued their verbal spat, reflecting a strained relationship between the allies."Ongoing strikes on vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz and flows remaining below pre-conflict levels continue to provide ​support," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, as reported by Reuters.According to Washington, shipping flows have recovered to 80%–90% of pre-war levels, but the area around the Strait of Hormuz and Strait of Bab al-Mandeb remains volatile. Repeated strikes have pushed tanker chartering costs and insurance premiums to exorbitant highs, ensuring physical crude stays expensive even when it moves.

Brent crude and WTI briefly fell after Donald Trump eased Russian fuel sanctions, but Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Ukrainian strikes kept oil prices elevated.

Global oil prices tumbled briefly on Monday from their five-month high at the end of last week after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order waiving key sanctions and tariffs under the newly enacted Lindsey Graham Act. Brent Crude is trading at $108.63/barrel, falling from the peak of $110 hit on Friday, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is at $101.53 per barrel, up from an intraday low of $99.24 per barrel. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that the administration is using a 60-day window to evaluate the macroeconomic impact of the Russian fuel waiver. This short timeline injects major uncertainty into the market, as algorithms are struggling to price in whether this extra supply is permanent or temporary. Also Read: France's Yellow Vests announce 'Act II' of protests on October 24, 31 Despite Trump's relaxation, the oil market remains stubbornly tight. While the announcement initially triggered profit-taking, causing Brent to slide over 2% to $107.57 and WTI to slip below $100, the drop was incredibly short-lived. Investors realised that despite the US sanctions waiver, long-term structural scarcity has not gone away. They rushed in to buy the dip, so the price did not tumble much. Further, just hours before the waiver announcement, Ukrainian drone strikes hit an oil terminal in St. Petersburg, Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump continued their verbal spat, reflecting a strained relationship between the allies. "Ongoing strikes on vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz and flows remaining below pre-conflict levels continue to provide support," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, as reported by Reuters. According to Washington, shipping flows have recovered to 80%–90% of pre-war levels, but the area around the Strait of Hormuz and Strait of Bab al-Mandeb remains volatile. Repeated strikes have pushed tanker chartering costs and insurance premiums to exorbitant highs, ensuring physical crude stays expensive even when it moves.

Brent crude and WTI briefly fell after Donald Trump eased Russian fuel sanctions, but Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Ukrainian strikes kept oil prices elevated.

Oil prices retreat from 5-month high after Trump eases Russian fuel sanctions

The US Treasury Department on Thursday (Mar 12) announced a temporary 30-day waiver on sanctions for Russian oil currently at sea, a move aimed at stabilising global energy markets as prices hover near $100 per barrel amid the Iran war. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the exemption will remain in effect until April 11, 2026, allowing hundreds of millions of barrels of crude to reach buyers. This "emergency release" comes as the Donald Trump administration scrambles to offset the supply shock caused by the ongoing Iran War and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.Also read | <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-kc-135-stratotanker-crashes-near-iraq-jordan-during-epic-fury-operations-rescue-mission-underway-1773360986341">US KC-135 Stratotanker crashes near Iraq-Jordan border during operation Epic Fury; rescue mission underway</a><h2>Russia lauds Trump admin waiver</h2>Soon after the US announced a sanctions waiver for Russian oil, Moscow's economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev on Friday (Mar 13) said that the global energy market "cannot remain stable" without his country's oil."The United States is effectively acknowledging the obvious: without Russian oil, the global energy market cannot remain stable," Dmitriev posted on Telegram.<h2>‘Set on fire’: Iran's threat as oil pushes $100 a barrel</h2>As Brent crude inched further above $100 a barrel and stocks fell in early Asian trade on Friday, Iran vowed to attack oil resources in the Middle East and keep choking the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to "set the region's oil and gas on fire". A spokesperson for Tehran's military central operational command, in a statement, vowed that they will "set the region's oil and gas on fire with the slightest attack on Iran's energy infrastructure and ports".The punishing sanctions by the US and the Group of 7 advanced economies on Russian oil have been in place since 2022. These sanctions included a price cap on Russian oil and a crackdown on Moscow's so-called "shadow fleet", i.e., unmarked vessels that oil exporters used to evade sanctions.Also read | <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/iran-claims-responsibility-for-twin-oil-tanker-blasts-near-iraq-1-dead-38-rescued-us-israel-iran-war-1773277311376">Iran claims responsibility for twin oil tanker blasts near Iraq; 1 dead, 38 rescued</a>Earlier, US President Trump had sought to blame Russian oil exports for the Ukraine war, which crossed the four-year mark on February 24, 2026. However, with Trump's war on Iran leading to economic turmoil with the price of crude oil rising to $100 and more, the US last week granted India a 30-day waiver to buy Russian oil.&nbsp; Bessent insisted that the temporary oil trade won't benefit Russia significantly. “To increase the global reach of existing supply, Treasury is providing a temporary authorisation to permit countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea,” he wrote in a social media post. “This narrowly tailored, short-term measure applies only to oil already in transit and will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, which derives the majority of its energy revenue from taxes assessed at the point of extraction.”

Disclaimer: WION takes utmost care to accurately and responsibly report ongoing conflicts in West Asia involving Israel, Iran, US, Gulf nations and non-state actors like Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Islamic State, and others. Claims and counterclaims, disinformation and misinformation are being made online and offline. Given this context, WION cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, social media posts, photos and videos.

Trump admin lifts sanctions on Russian oil to curb volatile crude prices amid Iran war

The US Treasury Department on Thursday (Mar 12) announced a temporary 30-day waiver on sanctions for Russian oil currently at sea, a move aimed at stabilising global energy markets as prices hover near $100 per barrel amid the Iran war. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the exemption will remain in effect until April 11, 2026, allowing hundreds of millions of barrels of crude to reach buyers. This "emergency release" comes as the Donald Trump administration scrambles to offset the supply shock caused by the ongoing Iran War and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Also read | US KC-135 Stratotanker crashes near Iraq-Jordan border during operation Epic Fury; rescue mission underway Russia lauds Trump admin waiver Soon after the US announced a sanctions waiver for Russian oil, Moscow's economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev on Friday (Mar 13) said that the global energy market "cannot remain stable" without his country's oil. "The United States is effectively acknowledging the obvious: without Russian oil, the global energy market cannot remain stable," Dmitriev posted on Telegram. ‘Set on fire’: Iran's threat as oil pushes $100 a barrel As Brent crude inched further above $100 a barrel and stocks fell in early Asian trade on Friday, Iran vowed to attack oil resources in the Middle East and keep choking the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to "set the region's oil and gas on fire". A spokesperson for Tehran's military central operational command, in a statement, vowed that they will "set the region's oil and gas on fire with the slightest attack on Iran's energy infrastructure and ports". The punishing sanctions by the US and the Group of 7 advanced economies on Russian oil have been in place since 2022. These sanctions included a price cap on Russian oil and a crackdown on Moscow's so-called "shadow fleet", i.e., unmarked vessels that oil exporters used to evade sanctions. Also read | Iran claims responsibility for twin oil tanker blasts near Iraq; 1 dead, 38 rescued Earlier, US President Trump had sought to blame Russian oil exports for the Ukraine war, which crossed the four-year mark on February 24, 2026. However, with Trump's war on Iran leading to economic turmoil with the price of crude oil rising to $100 and more, the US last week granted India a 30-day waiver to buy Russian oil. Bessent insisted that the temporary oil trade won't benefit Russia significantly. “To increase the global reach of existing supply, Treasury is providing a temporary authorisation to permit countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea,” he wrote in a social media post. “This narrowly tailored, short-term measure applies only to oil already in transit and will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, which derives the majority of its energy revenue from taxes assessed at the point of extraction.”

Trump admin lifts sanctions on Russian oil to curb volatile crude prices amid Iran war

Amid the ongoing tensions between India and the US over purchase of Russian oil, India's Ambassador to Russia, Vinay Kumar said that New Delhi will continue buying oil from wherever it gets the "best deal" and "take measures" to protect its national interest. &nbsp;The Indian envoy was speaking during an interview with TASS on Sunday, when he said that India's energy policy aims to secure reliable supplies for its citizens.This comes after US President Donald Trump imposed 25 per cent tariffs on India, which he later doubled, making it a total of 50 per cent, citing several reasons, including India buying Russian oil amid its war with Ukraine.Calling it "unfair, unreasonable and unjustified", Kumar said that India's energy policy aims to secure reliable supplies for its citizens and that its cooperation with Russia and other countries has contributed to global oil market stability."First of all, we have clearly stated that our objective is energy security of 1.4 billion people of India and India's cooperation with Russia, as of several other countries, has helped to bring about stability in the oil market, global oil market. So the US decision is unfair, unreasonable and unjustified," he told TASS."Now government will continue taking measures which will protect the national interest of the country," the envoy said.He stressed that the trade takes place on a commercial basis, adding that if the basis of commercial transaction trade imports are right, Indian companies will continue buying from where they get the "best deal". "So that's what the current situation is," he said.Saying that not just India, the US and Europe also trade with Russia, the envoy said, "Our trade is based on market factors and done with the overall object of ensuring the energy security of 1.4 billion people of India."After Trump imposed tariffs on India, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar called the US's move "unjustified and unreasonable".&nbsp;

Calling it "unfair, unreasonable and unjustified", Kumar said that India's energy policy aims to secure reliable supplies for its citizens and that its cooperation with Russia and other countries has contributed to global oil market stability.

Amid the ongoing tensions between India and the US over purchase of Russian oil, India's Ambassador to Russia, Vinay Kumar said that New Delhi will continue buying oil from wherever it gets the "best deal" and "take measures" to protect its national interest. The Indian envoy was speaking during an interview with TASS on Sunday, when he said that India's energy policy aims to secure reliable supplies for its citizens. This comes after US President Donald Trump imposed 25 per cent tariffs on India, which he later doubled, making it a total of 50 per cent, citing several reasons, including India buying Russian oil amid its war with Ukraine. Calling it "unfair, unreasonable and unjustified", Kumar said that India's energy policy aims to secure reliable supplies for its citizens and that its cooperation with Russia and other countries has contributed to global oil market stability. "First of all, we have clearly stated that our objective is energy security of 1.4 billion people of India and India's cooperation with Russia, as of several other countries, has helped to bring about stability in the oil market, global oil market. So the US decision is unfair, unreasonable and unjustified," he told TASS. "Now government will continue taking measures which will protect the national interest of the country," the envoy said. He stressed that the trade takes place on a commercial basis, adding that if the basis of commercial transaction trade imports are right, Indian companies will continue buying from where they get the "best deal". "So that's what the current situation is," he said. Saying that not just India, the US and Europe also trade with Russia, the envoy said, "Our trade is based on market factors and done with the overall object of ensuring the energy security of 1.4 billion people of India." After Trump imposed tariffs on India, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar called the US's move "unjustified and unreasonable".

Calling it "unfair, unreasonable and unjustified", Kumar said that India's energy policy aims to secure reliable supplies for its citizens and that its cooperation with Russia and other countries has contributed to global oil market stability.

Will buy oil from wherever we get 'best deal': India hits back at Trump tariffs, calls it 'unfair, unjustified'

Global oil prices are expected to open on a muted note this week after US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska, where the two leaders discussed a direct peace deal for Ukraine. As per Reuters, Trump said that both sides had agreed to pursue a “fully-fledged peace deal” rather than a temporary ceasefire. This marks a shift from the earlier US-backed position, which aligned with Ukraine and its European allies in seeking an interim ceasefire first.<h2>Tariffs on hold, Russian oil flows undisturbed</h2>In a significant policy move, Trump also indicated that he would hold off imposing tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, such as China. The US president had previously threatened to sanction Moscow directly and impose secondary sanctions on major buyers like China and India if no progress was made on ending the Ukraine war.&nbsp;Analysts say this stance could ease concerns of immediate disruption to Russian oil exports. Ajay Parmar, an analyst at ICIS, told Reuters that uninterrupted Russian supply should be bearish for prices. “It is worth noting that we think the impact of this will be minimal though and prices will likely see only a small dip in the very near term as a result of this news,” Parmar added.<h2>Markets waiting for clarity</h2>Attention now turns to Washington, where Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday. According to a Reuters source, European leaders have also been invited to join the talks.Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, said market watchers will be closely tracking European reactions. “For now, Russian supply disruption risks will remain contained,” he noted.<h2>Oil prices before the meeting</h2>Before the Alaska talks, Brent crude settled at $65.85 a barrel on Friday, while US West Texas Intermediate closed at $62.80 – both nearly $1 lower. Analysts say traders are waiting for a clearer outcome from the negotiations before making any big moves.&nbsp;Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, told Reuters that until a deal emerges, prices will likely stay stuck in a narrow range. “What we do know is that the threat of immediate sanctions on Russia, or secondary sanctions on other countries is put on hold for now, which would be bearish,” he said.<h2>Russia’s redirected oil flows</h2>Since the imposition of Western sanctions – including a seaborne oil embargo and price caps on Russian crude – Moscow has shifted its oil exports towards Asia, particularly China and India. The Alaska meeting outcome suggests this redirection will continue unhindered for now.&nbsp;With supply risks contained and sanctions pressure temporarily eased, oil markets are expected to lean bearish in the near term. But traders remain cautious, with much depending on the outcome of Trump’s upcoming meeting with Zelenskiy and Europe’s response to the new US approach.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp;

Following the August 15 Alaska talks, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin agreed to pursue a direct Ukraine peace deal, shifting away from earlier ceasefire-first proposals. Trump also held off imposing tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, easing concerns of immediate supply disruption.

Global oil prices are expected to open on a muted note this week after US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska, where the two leaders discussed a direct peace deal for Ukraine. As per Reuters, Trump said that both sides had agreed to pursue a “fully-fledged peace deal” rather than a temporary ceasefire. This marks a shift from the earlier US-backed position, which aligned with Ukraine and its European allies in seeking an interim ceasefire first. Tariffs on hold, Russian oil flows undisturbed In a significant policy move, Trump also indicated that he would hold off imposing tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, such as China. The US president had previously threatened to sanction Moscow directly and impose secondary sanctions on major buyers like China and India if no progress was made on ending the Ukraine war. Analysts say this stance could ease concerns of immediate disruption to Russian oil exports. Ajay Parmar, an analyst at ICIS, told Reuters that uninterrupted Russian supply should be bearish for prices. “It is worth noting that we think the impact of this will be minimal though and prices will likely see only a small dip in the very near term as a result of this news,” Parmar added. Markets waiting for clarity Attention now turns to Washington, where Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday. According to a Reuters source, European leaders have also been invited to join the talks. Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, said market watchers will be closely tracking European reactions. “For now, Russian supply disruption risks will remain contained,” he noted. Oil prices before the meeting Before the Alaska talks, Brent crude settled at $65.85 a barrel on Friday, while US West Texas Intermediate closed at $62.80 – both nearly $1 lower. Analysts say traders are waiting for a clearer outcome from the negotiations before making any big moves. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, told Reuters that until a deal emerges, prices will likely stay stuck in a narrow range. “What we do know is that the threat of immediate sanctions on Russia, or secondary sanctions on other countries is put on hold for now, which would be bearish,” he said. Russia’s redirected oil flows Since the imposition of Western sanctions – including a seaborne oil embargo and price caps on Russian crude – Moscow has shifted its oil exports towards Asia, particularly China and India. The Alaska meeting outcome suggests this redirection will continue unhindered for now. With supply risks contained and sanctions pressure temporarily eased, oil markets are expected to lean bearish in the near term. But traders remain cautious, with much depending on the outcome of Trump’s upcoming meeting with Zelenskiy and Europe’s response to the new US approach. (With inputs from the agencies)

Analysts say uninterrupted Russian exports keep prices tilted bearish in the short term, though Brent and WTI remain range-bound as traders await Trump’s upcoming meeting with Zelenskiy and Europe’s response.&nbsp;

Oil prices set for muted open after Trump-Putin Alaska meeting

As traders look ahead to a high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, a diplomatic encounter that could reshape the outlook for sanctions on Russian crude, oil markets were steady. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded near $63 a barrel after slipping 1.2 per cent in the previous session, while Brent closed just below $66, according to Bloomberg. The drop came in thin trading, with investors waiting for geopolitical cues from the upcoming Alaska summit, where Ukraine’s conflict is expected to dominate the agenda.<h2>Why the Trump–Putin talks matter for oil?</h2>An easing of US sanctions on OPEC+ member Russia could reportedly release more supply into the market, a development that traders are watching closely. Any such move could add to an already bearish supply picture, as global output is ramping up despite concerns about slowing demand due to US tariff pressures on the world economy.&nbsp;The US Department of Energy (DOE), as reported by Bloomberg, has revised up its 2025 global oversupply forecast to 1.7 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its own estimates later on Wednesday. OPEC, meanwhile, has kept its more bullish view, predicting a tighter oil market next year than previously projected.<h2>US stockpiles rise, demand season nears its end</h2>Whereas, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), cited by Reuters, showed US crude inventories rising by 1.52 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks fell, but distillate inventories used for diesel and heating oil gained slightly. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) to show a smaller crude drawdown of about 300,000 barrels in its official data later Wednesday, suggesting that the summer driving season may have already peaked. This seasonal demand window usually runs from Memorial Day in late May to Labour Day in early September.&nbsp;According to Reuters, the EIA projects US crude output will hit a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, thanks to higher well productivity. However, it expects a decline in 2026 as lower oil prices prompt reduced drilling. OPEC’s latest monthly report, as quoted by Reuters, raises its 2026 global demand growth forecast to 1.38 million barrels per day, an increase of 100,000 bpd from its previous projection, while keeping its 2025 demand estimate unchanged.&nbsp;The White House, as reported by Reuters, has already signalled that a quick Ukraine ceasefire is unlikely, meaning sanctions relief for Russia may not be imminent. Still, ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes told Reuters that traders appear less convinced about the possibility of fresh sanctions, even though President Trump has downplayed expectations of a breakthrough.<h2>Oil market snapshot</h2>As per Reuters, Brent crude, the global benchmark, inched up to $66.15 a barrel, a modest gain of three cents in early trade. The move comes after a 0.8 per cent drop in the previous session, reflecting market hesitation ahead of the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska. Whereas, US WTI crude slipped slightly by three cents to $63.14 a barrel, as per Reuters. While the change was marginal, it followed a sharper 1.2 per cent decline a day earlier. Oversupply concerns and a build-up in domestic stockpiles are keeping prices under pressure.&nbsp;API figures, as cited by Reuters, show US crude inventories rising by 1.52 million barrels last week. This suggests refiners may be cutting back runs as the summer demand season winds down. Gasoline stocks fell, but distillate inventories posted a small gain. Bloomberg reports that the DOE now expects a much larger global surplus in 2025, 1.7 million barrels per day, compared to earlier projections. Without production cuts from OPEC+, this could weigh heavily on prices.&nbsp;Reuters cites the EIA’s projection that US crude production will reach a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, boosted by well productivity gains, before easing in 2026. OPEC’s latest monthly report, as quoted by Reuters, raises its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.38 million barrels per day, driven by Asia and emerging markets, while demand growth in mature economies slows.

<figure class="table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Indicator</td><td>Latest Level</td><td>Change from Previous Session</td></tr><tr><td>Brent crude</td><td>$66.15/bbl</td><td>+$0.03 (+0.05%)</td></tr><tr><td>WTI crude</td><td>$63.14/bbl</td><td>-$0.03 (-0.05%)</td></tr><tr><td>US crude stocks</td><td>+1.52 million barrels</td><td>Week ended Aug 8</td></tr><tr><td>DOE oversupply forecast (2025)</td><td>1.7 million bpd</td><td>Up from earlier estimate</td></tr><tr><td>US crude output forecast (2025)</td><td>13.41 million bpd</td><td>Record high</td></tr><tr><td>OPEC global demand forecast (2026)</td><td>+1.38 million bpd</td><td>+100,000 bpd vs earlier</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>(Source: Reuters, Bloomberg)&nbsp;

<h2>Possible price paths after the Trump–Putin meeting</h2>If Trump and Putin agree on steps to lift or soften sanctions on Russian crude, more supply could flow into the global market. According to Bloomberg, this could push Brent prices back toward the low $60s. If there is no major breakthrough, prices may stay range-bound. As per Reuters analysts, Brent could hold between $63 and $66 as traders continue to price in the current sanctions regime. If fresh sanctions are imposed, further restricting Russian crude exports, the resulting supply squeeze could push Brent above $70 per barrel, especially if OPEC+ output remains steady, according to&nbsp;Reuters. (With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp; &nbsp;

Traders are closely monitoring an imminent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which could influence sanctions on Russian crude. US crude inventories grew by 1.52 million barrels, hinting at reduced refinery activity as the summer season ends. 

As traders look ahead to a high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, a diplomatic encounter that could reshape the outlook for sanctions on Russian crude, oil markets were steady. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded near $63 a barrel after slipping 1.2 per cent in the previous session, while Brent closed just below $66, according to Bloomberg. The drop came in thin trading, with investors waiting for geopolitical cues from the upcoming Alaska summit, where Ukraine’s conflict is expected to dominate the agenda. Why the Trump–Putin talks matter for oil? An easing of US sanctions on OPEC+ member Russia could reportedly release more supply into the market, a development that traders are watching closely. Any such move could add to an already bearish supply picture, as global output is ramping up despite concerns about slowing demand due to US tariff pressures on the world economy. The US Department of Energy (DOE), as reported by Bloomberg, has revised up its 2025 global oversupply forecast to 1.7 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its own estimates later on Wednesday. OPEC, meanwhile, has kept its more bullish view, predicting a tighter oil market next year than previously projected. US stockpiles rise, demand season nears its end Whereas, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), cited by Reuters, showed US crude inventories rising by 1.52 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks fell, but distillate inventories used for diesel and heating oil gained slightly. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) to show a smaller crude drawdown of about 300,000 barrels in its official data later Wednesday, suggesting that the summer driving season may have already peaked. This seasonal demand window usually runs from Memorial Day in late May to Labour Day in early September. According to Reuters, the EIA projects US crude output will hit a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, thanks to higher well productivity. However, it expects a decline in 2026 as lower oil prices prompt reduced drilling. OPEC’s latest monthly report, as quoted by Reuters, raises its 2026 global demand growth forecast to 1.38 million barrels per day, an increase of 100,000 bpd from its previous projection, while keeping its 2025 demand estimate unchanged. The White House, as reported by Reuters, has already signalled that a quick Ukraine ceasefire is unlikely, meaning sanctions relief for Russia may not be imminent. Still, ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes told Reuters that traders appear less convinced about the possibility of fresh sanctions, even though President Trump has downplayed expectations of a breakthrough. Oil market snapshot As per Reuters, Brent crude, the global benchmark, inched up to $66.15 a barrel, a modest gain of three cents in early trade. The move comes after a 0.8 per cent drop in the previous session, reflecting market hesitation ahead of the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska. Whereas, US WTI crude slipped slightly by three cents to $63.14 a barrel, as per Reuters. While the change was marginal, it followed a sharper 1.2 per cent decline a day earlier. Oversupply concerns and a build-up in domestic stockpiles are keeping prices under pressure. API figures, as cited by Reuters, show US crude inventories rising by 1.52 million barrels last week. This suggests refiners may be cutting back runs as the summer demand season winds down. Gasoline stocks fell, but distillate inventories posted a small gain. Bloomberg reports that the DOE now expects a much larger global surplus in 2025, 1.7 million barrels per day, compared to earlier projections. Without production cuts from OPEC+, this could weigh heavily on prices. Reuters cites the EIA’s projection that US crude production will reach a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, boosted by well productivity gains, before easing in 2026. OPEC’s latest monthly report, as quoted by Reuters, raises its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.38 million barrels per day, driven by Asia and emerging markets, while demand growth in mature economies slows.

Oil prices remained stable, with WTI near $63 and Brent just under $66. An easing of sanctions could increase supply, impacting an already bearish outlook as global production rises amid dwindling demand.

Oil steadies as Trump–Putin meeting looms over Ukraine conflict and sanctions

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a telephonic conversation with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday (August 11), and the two leaders discussed the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and are also likely to hold a personal meeting in September during the United Nations General Assembly.This comes as the United States President Donald Trump has been pushing and threatening India for its purchase of Russian oil, alleging that it is supporting the war in Ukraine.Zelensky, during the call with PM Modi, discussed sanctions against Russia, noting that it is necessary to limit the export of Russian energy, particularly oil, to "reduce its potential and ability to finance the continuation of this war."Expressing gratefulness, Zelensky in a post on X wrote, “I had a long conversation with the Prime Minister of India @narendramodi. We discussed in detail all important issues – both of our bilateral cooperation and the overall diplomatic situation. I am grateful to the Prime Minister for his warm words of support for our people.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">I had a long conversation with the Prime Minister of India <a href="https://twitter.com/narendramodi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@narendramodi</a>. We discussed in detail all important issues – both of our bilateral cooperation and the overall diplomatic situation. I am grateful to the Prime Minister for his warm words of support for our people. I… <a href="https://t.co/Lx9b3sMAbb">pic.twitter.com/Lx9b3sMAbb</a>&mdash; Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) <a href="https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1954891726134378999?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 11, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

"We agreed to plan a personal meeting in September during the UN General Assembly and to work on an exchange of visits," the Ukrainian president said.Meanwhile, PM Modi took to X, saying that he conveyed India's consistent position on the need for an early and peaceful resolution of the conflict."Glad to speak with President Zelenskyy and hear his perspectives on recent developments. India remains committed to making every possible contribution in this regard, as well as to further strengthening bilateral ties with Ukraine," PM Modi wrote on X.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">Glad to speak with President Zelenskyy and hear his perspectives on recent developments. I conveyed India’s consistent position on the need for an early and peaceful resolution of the conflict. India remains committed to making every possible contribution in this regard, as well…&mdash; Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) <a href="https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1954893314240483824?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 11, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

"The leaders also reviewed progress in the India-Ukraine bilateral partnership and discussed ways to further enhance cooperation in areas of mutual interest," a statement from the PM Modi office read.Moreover, Zelensky informed PM Modi about the Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and villages, about yesterday’s strike on the bus station in Zaporizhzhia, where dozens of people were injured in a deliberate Russian bombing of a regular urban facility.The Ukrainian president stressed that instead of demonstrating readiness for a ceasefire, "Russia is showing only its desire to continue the occupation and killings.""It is important that India is supporting our peace efforts and shares the position that everything concerning Ukraine must be decided with Ukraine’s participation. Other formats will not deliver results," Zelensky stressed."It is important that every leader who has tangible leverage over Russia sends the corresponding signals to Moscow," he added.

Zelensky, during the call with PM Modi, discussed sanctions against Russia, noting that it is necessary to limit the export of Russian oil.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a telephonic conversation with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday (August 11), and the two leaders discussed the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and are also likely to hold a personal meeting in September during the United Nations General Assembly. This comes as the United States President Donald Trump has been pushing and threatening India for its purchase of Russian oil, alleging that it is supporting the war in Ukraine. Zelensky, during the call with PM Modi, discussed sanctions against Russia, noting that it is necessary to limit the export of Russian energy, particularly oil, to "reduce its potential and ability to finance the continuation of this war." Expressing gratefulness, Zelensky in a post on X wrote, “I had a long conversation with the Prime Minister of India @narendramodi. We discussed in detail all important issues – both of our bilateral cooperation and the overall diplomatic situation. I am grateful to the Prime Minister for his warm words of support for our people.”

Zelensky, during the call with PM Modi, discussed sanctions against Russia, noting that it is necessary to limit the export of Russian oil.

Zelensky calls PM Modi amid Trump's tariff threats over Russian oil - Sanctions, personal meeting, Ukraine war discussed

On Friday, oil prices paused for breath. This comes as it was teetering between two conflicting forces, fears of slowing global demand triggered by US tariffs, and threats of supply disruptions from Russia that could tighten markets. As per Reuters, Brent crude futures inched up by just 4 cents to $71.74 a barrel at 1201 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude edged a mere 1 cent higher to $69.27. Despite the quiet session, both benchmarks were on track for weekly gains, 4.9% for Brent and a stronger 6.4% for WTI.<h2>Tariff threats complicate the outlook</h2>At the centre of the volatility is US President Donald Trump’s aggressive new trade offensive. On Thursday, Trump signed an executive order imposing steep tariffs, between 10 per cent and 41 per cent, on US imports from dozens of countries, including Canada, India, and Taiwan. The order targets nations that failed to meet Trump’s August 1 deadline to strike bilateral trade agreements with Washington. These sweeping tariffs are already showing ripple effects in the US economy, as per Reuters. In June, inflation ticked up as duties drove prices higher on imported goods ranging from furniture to recreational products, adding to concerns that consumer spending may be squeezed.&nbsp;This, in turn, could weigh on fuel demand. Analysts warn that higher costs and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts could limit economic growth, indirectly suppressing oil consumption in the world’s largest crude consumer. “The levies will limit economic growth by raising prices, which would weigh on oil consumption,” analysts cautioned in remarks quoted by Reuters.<h2>Russian oil supply caught in the crosshairs</h2>Yet while demand-side worries linger, supply-side jitters are keeping a floor under oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump threatened secondary sanctions on countries that continue to buy Russian crude, which notably includes China and India, who are the second and third-largest oil consumers in the world. The major goal of Trump's ultimatum is to economically isolate Moscow and force an end to its war against Ukraine.&nbsp;The move has sparked unease in global oil markets. According to a note from JP Morgan, also cited by Reuters, as much as 2.75 million barrels per day of Russian seaborne oil exports could be at risk if Washington proceeds with penalising buyers. “The Trump administration, like its predecessors, will likely find sanctioning the world’s second-largest oil exporter unfeasible without spiking oil prices,” JP Morgan analysts wrote. Even the threat of such tariffs has already started reshuffling global trade flows, with refiners and shippers reassessing exposure to Russian barrels. In the short term, this could tighten supply and lend support to oil prices.<h2>What happens next?</h2>Markets now face a delicate balancing act. Will Trump’s tariff escalation choke off global growth? Or will Russian supply threats dominate headlines and keep prices elevated? What’s clear is that geopolitics, not just fundamentals and will continue to drive volatility in oil markets.&nbsp;With US inflation rising and the Federal Reserve potentially delaying interest rate cuts until October, as reported by Reuters, any sustained rise in oil prices could further complicate the policy outlook. For now, oil traders are caught between two opposing forces, a world that might consume less, and a world that might produce less.&nbsp;And in the middle of it all is a global economy trying to dodge both a trade war and an oil shock.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)

Brent crude slightly rose to $71.74 a barrel, while WTI increased to $69.27, both on course for weekly gains. Trump new tariffs may limit economic growth, impacting oil consumption. Concurrently, threats of sanctions on countries buying Russian crude add to market anxiety. 

On Friday, oil prices paused for breath. This comes as it was teetering between two conflicting forces, fears of slowing global demand triggered by US tariffs, and threats of supply disruptions from Russia that could tighten markets. As per Reuters, Brent crude futures inched up by just 4 cents to $71.74 a barrel at 1201 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude edged a mere 1 cent higher to $69.27. Despite the quiet session, both benchmarks were on track for weekly gains, 4.9% for Brent and a stronger 6.4% for WTI. Tariff threats complicate the outlook At the centre of the volatility is US President Donald Trump’s aggressive new trade offensive. On Thursday, Trump signed an executive order imposing steep tariffs, between 10 per cent and 41 per cent, on US imports from dozens of countries, including Canada, India, and Taiwan. The order targets nations that failed to meet Trump’s August 1 deadline to strike bilateral trade agreements with Washington. These sweeping tariffs are already showing ripple effects in the US economy, as per Reuters. In June, inflation ticked up as duties drove prices higher on imported goods ranging from furniture to recreational products, adding to concerns that consumer spending may be squeezed. This, in turn, could weigh on fuel demand. Analysts warn that higher costs and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts could limit economic growth, indirectly suppressing oil consumption in the world’s largest crude consumer. “The levies will limit economic growth by raising prices, which would weigh on oil consumption,” analysts cautioned in remarks quoted by Reuters. Russian oil supply caught in the crosshairs Yet while demand-side worries linger, supply-side jitters are keeping a floor under oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump threatened secondary sanctions on countries that continue to buy Russian crude, which notably includes China and India, who are the second and third-largest oil consumers in the world. The major goal of Trump's ultimatum is to economically isolate Moscow and force an end to its war against Ukraine. The move has sparked unease in global oil markets. According to a note from JP Morgan, also cited by Reuters, as much as 2.75 million barrels per day of Russian seaborne oil exports could be at risk if Washington proceeds with penalising buyers. “The Trump administration, like its predecessors, will likely find sanctioning the world’s second-largest oil exporter unfeasible without spiking oil prices,” JP Morgan analysts wrote. Even the threat of such tariffs has already started reshuffling global trade flows, with refiners and shippers reassessing exposure to Russian barrels. In the short term, this could tighten supply and lend support to oil prices. What happens next? Markets now face a delicate balancing act. Will Trump’s tariff escalation choke off global growth? Or will Russian supply threats dominate headlines and keep prices elevated? What’s clear is that geopolitics, not just fundamentals and will continue to drive volatility in oil markets. With US inflation rising and the Federal Reserve potentially delaying interest rate cuts until October, as reported by Reuters, any sustained rise in oil prices could further complicate the policy outlook. For now, oil traders are caught between two opposing forces, a world that might consume less, and a world that might produce less. And in the middle of it all is a global economy trying to dodge both a trade war and an oil shock. (With inputs from the agencies)

Oil prices stabilised on Friday amid conflicting pressures: apprehensions about descending global demand due to US tariffs, and potential supply disruptions from Russia.

Oil holds as Trump’s tariff war clashes with Russian supply fears