India freezes Indus Water Treaty: What it means for India & Pakistan

The Indus Water Treaty is at the centre of the recent Indo-Pak tensions. The 65-year old treaty, mediated by World Bank, divides the six Indus basin rivers between the two countries.

This treaty is considered as a lifeline to Pakistan's economic backbone - agriculture. India is entitled to use 18 per cent of the Basin's waters, but it only uses 10 per cent. This suspension would allow India to assert greater control over water flows into Pakistan

India has been building major infrastructure projects in the region. These projects, built on tributaries of the Jhelum and Chenab, have long been a point of contention. With the treaty now suspended, India may also stop sharing real-time flow data and block future inspections and utilise more of those eastern river waters.

Pakistan seems to lose more with the suspension of this treaty. Around 80 per cent of its cultivated land relies on the Indus for irrigation. It supports over 60 per cent of the population and contributes nearly 25 per cent to the national GDP. Reduced inflows could devastate key crops like wheat, rice, and cotton, leading to lower yields and food insecurity.

It could also impact Pakistan's energy output. Hydropower production from the Mangla and Tarbela Damns, responsible for nearly 30 per cent of Pakistan's electricity, may also decline. This can eventually lead to overexploitation of groundwater, further draining resources.

Economic stress, inter-provincial water disputes, and a potential drop in agricultural exports like basmati rice could follow—further straining Pakistan's fragile economy.