IMF's warning on artificial intelligence: 'Bubble will burst like...'

IMF's warning on artificial intelligence: 'Bubble will burst like...'

A billboard advertising an artificial intelligence (AI) company in San Francisco, California. Photograph: (AFP file)

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Dot-com bubble vs artificial intelligence bubble: IMF's chief economist said that investment and consumption are aiding inflationary pressures without productivity gains.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that, like the dot-com bust in the early 2000s, the United States' artificial intelligence investmentboom could prove to be just an economic bubble and could burst. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF's chief economist, said that the burst could crater the US or global economy.

Dot-com bubble vs AI bubble

He told Reuters that the dot-com-induced stock bubble of the 1990s is similar to the current AI boom. He said both eras increased stock valuations and capital gains wealth exponentially. This artificial gain in stocks fueled consumption and inflation. He said that the promise of AI-enabled transformation may not be fulfilled, triggering a crash of valuations.

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"This is not financed by debt, and that means that if there is a market correction, some shareholders, some equity holders, may lose out,” Gourinchas said in Washington.

"But it doesn’t necessarily transmit to the broader financial system and create impairments in the banking system or in the financial system more broadly,” he added.

Tech firms have been pumping billions of dollars into developing AI chips, computing power, and other AI infrastructure, betting on the promise that the new technology will enable gains in efficiency and productivity.

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However, these gains have not yet been realised. It is similar to the 1990s when internet stock valuations couldn't be backed by revenue gains, leading to a recession in the United States in 2001.

Gourinchas said there was a possibility an AI correction could trigger a shift in sentiment and risk tolerance that could lead to broader repricing of assets.

In 2008, the US property bubble burst, precipitating a global financial crisis.

He said that investment and consumption are aiding inflationary pressures without productivity gains.

Experts have predicted that artificial intelligence will disruptthe job market as it will end so many roles. However, it will create new kinds of jobs, offsetting unemployment.

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Vaibhav Tiwari

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