US President Trump embarks on Middle East tour with focus on business & regional tensions

US President Donald Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates on Monday (May 12), beginning his first significant foreign trip of his second term with a packed agenda of business agreements, even though longstanding regional rivalries are likely to predominate.

While Israel’s war in Gaza and Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain front and center, the White House has framed the visit as a “historic return” to a region Trump first visited as president in 2017—when he famously posed over a glowing orb with Saudi and Egyptian leaders in Riyadh.

By choosing again to begin his overseas travels within the oil-producing Gulf—instead of with long-standing Western partners—Trump is demonstrating the rising geopolitical influence of the region, and also emphasising his long-established personal and commercial connections there.

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"It's hard for me to escape the idea that President Trump is going to the Gulf because this is his happy place," said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"His hosts will be generous and hospitable. They'll be keen to make deals. They'll flatter him and not criticize him, and they'll treat his family members as past and future business partners."

A historic return

Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi are making preparations for a lavish reception for Trump, who stopped by Rome briefly to attend Pope Francis's funeral. The Gulf states are likely to present a combination of ceremonial pomp and wide-reaching commercial deals in defense, aviation, energy, and artificial intelligence.

"The president looks forward to embarking on his historic return to the Middle East" to promote a vision where "extremism is defeated in place of commerce and cultural exchanges," spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said Friday.

Nevertheless, serious regional crises will be impossible to avoid. Trump will be called upon to speak to the continuing conflict in Gaza, the ascendance of the Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen, and instability in Syria after the collapse of the Assad regime.

Trump will meet with the leaders of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman, during his visit. Israel, Washington's most important ally in the region, is strangely absent from the list, fueling speculation regarding the strained relationship between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

"Trump is coming to the Gulf first because this region has become a geopolitical and financial center of gravity," Anna Jacobs, non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, was quoted saying to AFP.

Israel has also reportedly given Trump's visit a deadline to consider a possible ceasefire with Hamas, warning it of a major assault in Gaza unless an agreement is reached. Nonetheless, Trump has adopted a hands-off approach, while American officials indicate they're cooperating with Israel on a new Gaza aid corridor.

Iran and 'Monetizing MAGA'

Iran will also be a critical focus. On Sunday, the US and Iran are set to resume indirect nuclear talks in Oman. Tehran has expressed outrage after Trump floated the idea of renaming the Persian Gulf to the “Gulf of Arabia,” a move that would likely escalate tensions further.

In the meantime, while Trump's camp maintains that his businesses are not on the agenda, his family's expanding commercial presence in the region indicates otherwise. The Trump Organisation recently closed a luxury real estate transaction in Qatar and unveiled a $1 billion skyscraper development in Dubai that takes cryptocurrency payments.

Eric Trump has been touting crypto businesses in the UAE, and Donald Trump Jr. will be speaking at a Doha event called "Monetizing MAGA."

But the White House denied Trump was cashing in."It's frankly ridiculous that anyone... would even suggest that President Trump is doing anything for his own benefit," Leavitt said.