US polls forecast: Expert with near-perfect presidential election predictions says THIS candidate 'will win'
Trump, Harris
Amid the endless polls and media speculation, a historian with an almost impeccable track record predicting US election results, has predicted that the Democrat candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, will win the November elections.
The US election 'expert'
Allan Lichtman, an American historian, has an almost perfect record predicting once-every-four year's election wins in the country, and this time he says,"Harris will win."
Lichtman, as per AFP, has been predicting since 1984 and of nine elections, his prediction has been wrong only once.
His only miss was in 2000, when George W. Bush won despite losing the popular vote, due to a controversial Supreme Court decision.
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How does he predict so accurately?
To predict which candidate will grace the White House, Allan Lichtman does not depend on the opinion polls, and instead uses the "13 keys" method.
He relies on 13 true-or-false statements about the current administration.
For instance, one key considers whether the incumbent party has gained or lost seats in recent midterms. Since the Democrats lost the House in 2022, this key is false, giving a slight edge to Republican challenger Donald Trump.
Lichtman's analysis is anything but straightforward. Some factors, such as Biden stepping down, might benefit Trump, but others favour Harris. For example, major policy achievements like the Biden administration's infrastructure and climate legislation count as positives. The departure of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the lack of major scandals also work in Harris's favour.
He also acknowledged that significant foreign policy developments, like a major peace deal or hostage release in Gaza, could shift the balance in Harris's favour.
"I don't like to speculate, because the devil is in the details, but that could be seen as a big success," he said.
Critics don't agree with Lichtman's analysis
Critics argue that some of Lichtman's criteria, such as defining a "charismatic" leader, are too subjective.
Lichtman, however, says, "We're dealing with human beings. Historians make judgments all the time, and the judgments are very tightly constrained."
(With inputs from agencies)
