New York, United States

US President-elect Donald Trump has ignited controversy with remarks suggesting that the United States should consider demanding the return of the Panama Canal. Speaking at a recent event, Trump criticised the high tolls imposed by the Panama Canal Authority and expressed concerns over growing Chinese influence in Panama, which he argued could pose a strategic risk to US interests.

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Panama’s President, José Raúl Mulino, swiftly rejected the remarks, calling the canal an integral part of Panama’s sovereignty. As this issue gains attention, it is worth exploring the history of the Panama Canal, its importance in global trade, and the implications of Trump’s proposal.

The History of the Panama Canal

The Panama Canal, completed in 1914, is one of the most significant engineering achievements in history. Stretching approximately 50 miles across the Isthmus of Panama, the canal connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, dramatically reducing maritime travel times by eliminating the need to navigate around South America’s Cape Horn. This shortcut transformed global trade, enabling faster and more efficient movement of goods.

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Also read | Panama rubbishes Donald Trump's threat to take control of Canal

The canal’s construction was originally attempted by French engineers in the late 19th century but failed due to financial mismanagement, engineering challenges, and deadly tropical diseases like malaria and yellow fever. In the early 20th century, the United States stepped in, purchasing the French assets and securing the rights to complete the canal.

The US role in the canal’s construction was closely tied to Panama’s independence from Colombia. In 1903, the US supported Panama’s bid for independence, and shortly after, the newly established Panamanian government signed the Hay-Bunau-Varilla Treaty, granting the US control over the canal zone in perpetuity. The canal opened in 1914, operated and maintained by the US, and became a cornerstone of American strategic and economic power.

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The Struggle for Panamanian Sovereignty

While the canal was a point of pride for American engineering, it became a source of resentment in Panama. The canal zone, a US-controlled territory, created economic disparities and fuelled anti-American sentiment among Panamanians. Calls for sovereignty over the canal grew louder in the mid-20th century, culminating in the signing of the Torrijos-Carter Treaties in 1977.

These agreements, negotiated by US President Jimmy Carter and Panamanian leader Omar Torrijos, set a timeline for the gradual transfer of the canal to Panama. Over 22 years, control was handed over step by step, with Panama officially taking full ownership of the canal on December 31, 1999. Today, the Panama Canal is a vital economic asset for Panama, generating billions of dollars annually and serving as a symbol of national pride.

Trump’s Remarks and Panama’s Response

During his recent remarks, President-elect Trump criticised the tolls charged by the Panama Canal Authority, arguing that they disproportionately harm American businesses. He also raised concerns about Chinese investments in Panama, including infrastructure projects near the canal. These comments align with Trump’s broader “America First” philosophy, which prioritises US economic and strategic dominance.

Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino quickly responded, rejecting Trump’s comments as a challenge to Panamanian sovereignty. Mulino emphasised that the canal is a non-negotiable part of the country’s independence and identity. “The Panama Canal is ours. It represents our sovereignty and is not up for debate,” Mulino stated in an official press release.

Trump’s remarks highlight growing US concerns about China’s expanding presence in Latin America. Beijing has invested heavily in Panamanian infrastructure, including port facilities near the canal, as part of its broader Belt and Road Initiative. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, China is now one of Panama’s largest trading partners, sparking fears in Washington that Beijing’s economic influence could translate into strategic leverage.

Watch: Donald Trump Threatens to Reassert US Control Over Panama Canal

The Modern Role of the Panama Canal

The Panama Canal remains a critical artery for global commerce, facilitating the passage of approximately five per cent of the world’s maritime trade. Its strategic importance extends beyond economics, serving as a vital link in supply chains for goods ranging from oil to consumer electronics. For Panama, the canal is an economic lifeline, generating billions of dollars in revenue and supporting thousands of jobs.

In 2016, the canal underwent a $5.25 billion expansion, adding a third set of locks to accommodate larger ships, known as Neopanamax vessels. This upgrade has reinforced the canal’s relevance in a rapidly changing global trade landscape.

For the United States, the canal remains a strategic asset. While the Torrijos-Carter Treaties formalised the transfer of ownership, the canal’s efficient operation and neutrality are essential for US shipping and military logistics. However, China’s investments in Panama have added a layer of complexity to this dynamic, raising questions about the balance of power in the region.

Despite a significant decline in ship crossings due to water shortages and a sharp drop in rainfall in 2023, the Panama Canal saw a remarkable 15 per cent revenue increase to nearly $5 billion, buoyed by higher tolls and special auction fees that reached up to $4 million per passage, according to the New York Times. 

The canal authority introduced significant toll increases before the water crisis, which helped offset the financial impact of reduced ship traffic caused by low water levels. 

Shipping companies were willing to pay substantial sums, up to $4 million per passage, to secure one of the limited crossings. However, continued delays and rising costs may prompt shipping companies to explore alternative routes, such as the Suez Canal or circumnavigating Africa.

Also read | Trump accuses Panama of 'ripping off' the US with excessive fees, threatens to take back control

Legal and Diplomatic Challenges

Trump’s suggestion to demand the return of the Panama Canal faces significant legal and diplomatic obstacles. The Torrijos-Carter Treaties are internationally recognised agreements, and any attempt to renegotiate or reverse them could strain US-Latin American relations, which have already been tested in recent years.

Moreover, demanding the canal’s return risks alienating Panama, a key regional partner. Analysts argue that such rhetoric could push Panama closer to China, undermining US efforts to counter Beijing’s growing influence in the Western Hemisphere.

Geopolitical Implications

The Panama Canal’s importance goes beyond trade. In an era of heightened US-China competition, control of critical infrastructure like the canal has taken on new strategic significance. While Trump’s concerns about China’s investments are shared by many policymakers in Washington, experts caution that provocative demands could backfire, weakening US influence in Latin America.

Instead, analysts suggest that the US focus on strengthening partnerships with Panama and other Latin American nations. By investing in regional development and fostering economic ties, the US can counterbalance China’s presence without resorting to contentious demands.

Conclusion

The Panama Canal has become a symbol of sovereignty, cooperation, and global trade for Panama. While Donald Trump's remarks may resonate with many, any attempt to reclaim it would face significant opposition and risk destabilising US-Latin American relations. Ultimately, the US would need to carefully weigh whether reasserting control over the canal is worth the potential costs and consequences, considering the fragile balance of regional diplomacy and the canal's enduring importance in global commerce.