Pakistan pushes 'false flag' narrative before Pahalgam terror attack anniversary; Indian Intel on high alert

Pakistan's spy agency has launched a sophisticated propaganda drive, according to intelligence sources, ahead of the first anniversary of last year's deadly Pahalgam terror attack.

The campaign, orchestrated by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), accuses India of planning a "false flag" operation in the coming days. It claims Indian authorities might stage an attack and blame Pakistan, possibly by using Pakistani nationals held in Indian jails. The narrative has been swiftly picked up by major mainstream Pakistani outlets, and amplified across social media.

Intelligence inputs suggest the story was drafted by ISI's Director General-Media, Major General Muhammad Mushtaq Ali. It was then planted in newspapers before the Pakistan Army's X Corps and the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) took over wider dissemination.

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Lieutenant General Amer Ahsan Nawaz, commander of X Corps, and ISPR's DG-Bravo, Major General Zulfiqar Ali Bhatti, are said to have overseen the push, using coordinated bot networks and affiliated accounts to spread the message rapidly.

This timing is no coincidence. It comes just before the anniversary of the April 2025 Pahalgam terror attack, which killed dozens, mostly tourists. Indian officials point out a similar pattern last year, Pakistan floated comparable "false flag" warnings weeks before the terror attack. After the attack, two of the three terrorists neutralised were found carrying Pakistani Computerised National Identity Cards (CNICs), undermining Islamabad's denials.

In the 11 months since Pahalgam, Indian security forces have eliminated 34 Pakistani terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir, according to sources. Yet more than 40 others linked to groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed remain active. Agencies are also tracking recent meetings between ISI officers, including Punjab Sector Commander Brigadier Rizwan Sharif, and operatives from these outfits.

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What stands out in this latest episode is the highly institutionalised nature of Pakistan's information warfare. Far from ad-hoc responses, the machinery involves the ISI's Analysis Wing working with media and technical directors to craft unified narratives. ISPR's "Bravo Division" executes the plans, while those recruited through a long-running programme, now reportedly running batches of over 8,000, help generate and push content.

Regulatory bodies like PEMRA and the PTA help control the domestic information space.

Indian security agencies remain on high alert, viewing the campaign as part of a hybrid strategy that blends psychological operations with potential ground threats. They emphasise that such pre-emptive narratives aim to shape global perceptions and provide cover if terror attack happens.

Pakistan has long involved in cross border terrorism attacks in India, from 2001 Parliament terror attack to 26/11 Mumbai terror attack to last year' Pahalgam terror attack.