Israel election 2026: Who will be next PM — Will Netanyahu survive his toughest test yet? EXPLAINED

The next Prime Minister of Israel will be determined on October 27 after the vote is done. The election will decide who remains in power: Benjamin Netanyahu, Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid or Mansour Abbas. As per the polls, neither Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition has a clear path to the 61 seats needed to form a government.

This election marks the first since the Hamas-led attack took place on October 7, 2023, which is also widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s handling of the attack and the wars that followed. Voters are going to elect the 120 members of the 26th Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Major highlights of the election include October 7 security failures, the cost of living, and Israel’s standing abroad.

Netanyahu’s bloc is in coalition with far-right parties, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, and ultra-Orthodox parties such as Shas and United Torah Judaism. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party is also a key ally of the PM, forming the governing bloc.

Who can win the election?

In this political battle, Netanyahu is not alone. The centre-right Yashar party's Gadi Eisenkot and the centre-right Beyahad's Naftali Bennett can give tough competition. The recent polls indicate that Gadi Eisenkot is neck-and-neck with, or leading, Netanyahu in head-to-head matchups for prime minister. Bennett has also polled closely against Netanyahu for the same post.

According to data from Polymarket cited on September 8, 2026, Gadi Eisenkot held a projected 51 per cent chance of becoming the next prime minister compared to Benjamin Netanyahu's 28 per cent. Recent poll tracking reported by The Times of Israel and broadcast summaries indicate the bloc of Jewish opposition parties is projected to win roughly 54 seats, while Netanyahu's right-wing and ultra-Orthodox coalition bloc is projected at around 48 to 49 seats.

Because the magic number for a parliamentary majority in the 120-member Knesset is 61, neither camp has a guaranteed path to a clear majority on its own. Arab-majority parties (projected at around 13 seats) and potential unity-government negotiations (favoured by 60 per cent of respondents in a late-October Maariv poll) will likely dictate the outcome.

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Alliance with parties

If Netanyahu wants to form the government for the next term, then he would need support from his right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies, while the opposition would have to find partners beyond its core parties. Arab-led parties could end up holding the balance of power, yet mainstream opposition figures have shied away from bringing them into a coalition, and Netanyahu has gone further, openly criticising the idea of depending on their support. Adding to the complexity, the ultra-Orthodox factions remain at odds with other players over military service exemptions.

Forming a government, then, could take several shapes: a broad unity coalition, a deal that brings Arab-led parties into the fold, or ultra-Orthodox backing for a rival coalition arrangement. None of these paths would come without political trade-offs, and if no option materialises, the country could find itself heading back to the polls.