How geopolitics collapsed China-Japan air travel: 700,000 seats cut this winter

Airlines will remove nearly 700,000 seats from China-Japan routes and cancel more than 5,000 flights this winter as a political dispute, now almost a year old, continues to depress tourism, according to aviation data provider OAG (Official Airline Guide). News outlet South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that for the winter season, which runs from October 25 to March 27, carriers have allocated a combined 2,871,270 seats, down from 3,554,167 in the same period last year. The same airlines offered 3,889,781 seats in the six months just ended, more than a million above the coming winter's total, though summer is traditionally busier. OAG chief analyst John Grant told SCMP the decline reflects "the power of geopolitics on the aviation industry".

Based on information from 22 carriers, airlines are planning 12,613 flights for the next six months. That is 5,208 fewer than in the summer season and 5,433 fewer than a year earlier. Chinese carriers are making the deepest cuts, while Japanese airlines have barely changed their schedules. Compared with last winter, Air China has cut 60,898 seats, China Eastern Airlines 111,260 and China Southern Airlines 82,575. In flights, Air China has removed 909, China Eastern 1,185 and China Southern 511. All Nippon Airways, by contrast, has kept all 1,848 of its flights.

The mass cancellations began in November 2025, after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested Tokyo could deploy military forces if a conflict broke out in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing issued a travel warning that month urging Chinese citizens to avoid Japan, and several Chinese airlines offered full refunds on Japan-bound bookings. China had previously been Japan's largest source of overseas tourists.

Tensions may be further strained by joint exercises this month in which Japanese and US forces rehearsed anti-ship strikes and mobile missile deployments in Kyushu and Japan's southwestern islands. The drills are seen as preparation to challenge Beijing's ability to control surrounding waters in a Taiwan conflict.

Yoichiro Sato, a professor at Ritsumeikan Asia-Pacific University, tols SCMP low-cost airlines could maintain capacity for the remaining tourism market, but fares on major routes would probably rise. This, he said, would increase travel costs for Japanese technicians and engineers who service Japan-built manufacturing equipment used by Chinese customers.