Israel election 2026: Netanyahu leads but falls short of majority with 85% of ballots counted; Arab parties could hold key

Partial results from Israel's general election show veteran Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leading his rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, although his bloc remains short of a majority in parliament. With 85% of ballots counted, Netanyahu's Likud party and its far-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish allies were projected to win 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Eisenkot's Yashar party and three other Jewish opposition parties in his bloc were on course to secure 48 seats.

Both leaders have said they will attempt to form a governing coalition. Arab-led parties, projected to win an unprecedented 19 seats, could emerge as kingmakers. However, all but one of the Jewish parties have pledged not to cooperate with them. Between 430,000 and 480,000 absentee ballots from groups including soldiers, diplomats and hospital patients remain to be counted. The final election results could therefore take another day or two to emerge.

Once the results are confirmed, President Isaac Herzog will consult all political factions before inviting the leader he believes has the strongest chance of success to form a government. The process could take weeks. If the efforts to form a government fail, Israel would ultimately have to hold another election. Both Netanyahu and his main rival have maintained that they should be given the opportunity to form a governing coalition.

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Opposition could gain control of Parliament

Although Israel's opposition may struggle to form a government, it could still gain control of parliament. Initial results released on Wednesday showed no outright winner, and it could take weeks to determine who will be able to form the next government. Even if no government is formed, the Knesset is scheduled to open on November 10. Netanyahu's opponents could be in a strong position to take control of the legislative process.

The parliament will begin its work with the swearing-in of all 120 lawmakers. Both major blocs of Jewish parties appear to have fallen short of a parliamentary majority. They are also reluctant to form a government that depends on cooperation with the two predominantly Arab parties.