Israel elections 2026: What happens if Netanyahu loses | Gravitas

In the backdrop of three years of multi-front regional wars, which have sharply divided public opinion, Israel is holding its general election today.

44.9% of all eligible voters cast their vote as of 2 pm local time. This is the highest voter turnout at this hour since 1973.

Earlier in the day, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara cast their vote at a polling booth in Jerusalem. Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for over 19 years across three different periods, is the country's longest-serving PM.

Calling upon Israelis to vote the 'right way', he also accused Arab parties of trying to steal the election. However, Israel's Central Election Committee clarified that this was a localised case which was under investigation.

Other election candidates, including former PM Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid and ex-military chief Gadi Eisenkot, also cast their vote.

Meanwhile, police arrested a knife-carrying assailant who moved threateningly towards Yair Golan, leader of Israel's main left-wing party. Golan blamed this incident, which took place in Tel Aviv, on the 'poison machine' unleashed by Netanyahu.

Now, former IDF chief and Yashar party chief Gadi Eisenkot is seen as the main challenger to Netanyahu, with multiple opinion polls pegging him as the preferred PM choice.

Reiterating his commitment to dismantling Hamas within 18 months of forming the government, Eisenkot urged voters to unseat what he described as the 'worst government' in Israeli history.

Today's vote is also being seen by some observers as a referendum on Netanyahu's handling of the October 7 terror attack and security failures.

Some of the affected families observed a moment of silence at the Hostage Square in Tel Aviv and encouraged people to go out and vote.

While Netanyahu is also grappling with issues like the cost of living and military exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews, the Iran war has been at the centre stage of his election campaign. He has vowed to topple the Iranian regime along with the US.

But what happens if Netanyahu loses?

The post-election scenario may be more complex, as opinion polls have not predicted a majority for either the ruling coalition or the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot.

According to The Washington Post, Netanyahu is hoping to remain in power by allying with Eisenkot post-elections. He has reportedly told US as well as European allies that this formula could allow him to form a more moderate coalition without far-right allies such as Jewish Power leader Ben-Gvir.

Netanyahu has also reportedly presented himself as the strongest Israeli partner for renewed military strikes against Iran. However, the report claimed that the Trump administration is divided over the proposal.

While some officials believe Netanyahu can govern more moderately without Ben-Gvir's influence, others distrust him because of his history of breaking alliances.

If Eisenkot rejects an alliance, though, Netanyahu could potentially remain in office as caretaker PM and even seek a snap election. This scenario cannot be discounted, as the official results will be published only on November 4, and negotiations on forming a government may take weeks after that.

If no party gets 61 seats in the 120-member Israeli parliament, every small party will count.

In such a scenario, can Ben-Gvir potentially emerge as a kingmaker, with polls projecting nearly eight seats for his party?

With the Israeli minister openly expressing his displeasure with Netanyahu, it remains to be seen whether he will agree to serve as a minister under Netanyahu.

Now, the stakes are high for New Delhi as well. While the bilateral ties will continue to grow, as there is pan-party goodwill for India, it is worth noting that PM Modi and Netanyahu share a very cordial relationship.

The bonhomie between the two leaders came to the fore during PM Modi's visit to Israel in February this year. Back then, both countries elevated their relationship to a special strategic partnership for peace, innovation and prosperity.

PM Modi was also conferred with the highest honour of the Israeli parliament.

Besides defence, both sides are also strengthening cooperation in areas like innovation, agriculture and AI. India and Israel are also moving towards finalising a free trade agreement.

In terms of regional connectivity too, Israel's role is vital. This is because the proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor will pass through its territory.

With exit polls expected to come after polling, which ends at 10 pm local time, we may get a sense of the direction in which Israelis have voted in the next few hours.