Israel elections: Record voter turnout in decades as Opposition edges ahead of Netanyahu in early projections

Israeli voters on Tuesday gave opposition parties a narrow lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to initial projections, following decades-high voter turnout in the country's first election since the trauma of the October 7, 2023 attacks. Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, who has led the country for nearly two decades, campaigned on promises to fight enemies ranging from Hamas to Iran. On election day, he also raised concerns about the strength of Israeli Arab voters.

Early projections broadcast by Israeli television networks showed the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, a centre-right former military chief, holding a narrow advantage over Netanyahu's bloc, which includes far-right parties. Israeli Arab parties also made significant gains, with early exit polls suggesting they could play a critical role in the next parliament. With no single party securing a majority, Israeli politicians are expected to enter potentially weeks of high-stakes negotiations to form a coalition government.

The country's main pollsters, Channels 11, 12 and 13, projected that the opposition bloc would win between 52 and 53 seats, compared with around 50 for Netanyahu's bloc. However, his Likud party was projected to remain the largest single party in parliament, with 24 or 25 seats. In an effort to secure as many votes as possible, Netanyahu accused Israeli Arabs of being out to ‘steal the election’. His Likud party also unsuccessfully asked election authorities to keep polling stations open beyond 10:00 pm.

The move prompted opposition parties to accuse Netanyahu of seeking grounds to challenge the election results. "We cannot leave this battle here in the hands of the left and the Arab parties that want to bring an end to the Jewish state," a visibly tense Netanyahu told supporters as he attempted to boost turnout in a Likud stronghold. Nationwide voter turnout stood at nearly 75 per cent by 8pm, marking the highest level in decades.

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Divisive rule

Israelis voted in the shadow of the October 7 attacks and the multi-front regional wars that followed. The trauma of the attack remained fresh, while questions about accountability and national security featured prominently in the campaign. The closely contested election took place as Israel faced growing isolation on the international stage, driven by the war in Iran, the devastating military campaign in Gaza, increased settlement construction and violence in the occupied West Bank.

Netanyahu faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court over Gaza, as well as domestic corruption charges that could result in a prison sentence. His main rival, Eisenkot, is a political novice and former military chief whose mild manner contrasts with that of the incumbent prime minister. Before voting, the 66-year-old Eisenkot privately paid his respects at the grave of his son Gal, who died fighting in Gaza. His death has drawn sympathy from many Israelis. Speaking afterwards at a polling station, Eisenkot urged voters to replace what he described as "the worst government since the state was established".

Arab minority in the spotlight

Around 7.3 million people were eligible to vote, with tens of thousands of Israelis estimated to have travelled home from abroad for an election considered crucial to determining the country's future direction. Netanyahu, 77, has served as prime minister on and off for more than 19 years. Throughout his political career, he has repeatedly portrayed Arab voters as a threat. On Tuesday, he warned about Arabs voting by the busload and wrote on social media that Israel could wake up to a government of the left wing and Muslim Brotherhood.

Netanyahu also claimed that three senior officials of the United Arab List had been arrested in the south with envelopes full of cash. Dean Livne, acting director general of the Central Elections Committee, said police had caught individuals who tried to bribe voters. He added that the unidentified suspects were not at polling stations and had been caught near their homes. Livne described the incident as an isolated case that remained under investigation.

United Arab List leader Mansour Abbas, who could emerge as a kingmaker in a closely contested election, accused Netanyahu of lying and inciting to mobilise his supporters. Exit polls from Israel's main television channels projected that the two Arab lists would win a combined 17 or 18 seats in the 120-member parliament, up from 10 in the previous election in 2022.

In Tel Aviv, the left-wing party The Democrats, which is part of Eisenkot's opposition bloc, said police had arrested a man carrying a knife who had moved threateningly towards its leader, Yair Golan. "Incitement and violence will not intimidate us," Golan said in a statement, blaming the incident on the ‘poison machine’ of Netanyahu.

Netanyahu returned to power in December 2022, forming a coalition that included far-right ultra-nationalists. Since then, these groups have increased their political influence and aggressively supported settlements in the West Bank.

During the final days of the campaign, Netanyahu posted an image depicting a nuclear bomb destroying Tel Aviv and highlighted his endorsement by US President Donald Trump, who has also frequently alleged election fraud.