EXPLAINED: What Japan's Taiwan stance against China means for India ahead of Modi-Takaichi talks?

Prime Minister Takaichi, Japan's first female PM, has maintained a hawkish stance toward Beijing. The bilateral friction intensified significantly after Takaichi declared in parliament that Tokyo could hypothetically intervene militarily alongside the US in the event of a "Taiwan emergency." The development unfolded on 7 November 2025 after Takaichi gave her remark stating that an attack on Taiwan could represent “a situation threatening Japan’s survival”, a legal term that would enable Tokyo to intervene militarily in a conflict involving Taiwan.

Following her comments, a fierce reaction from Beijing followed that included bans on Japanese seafood, prompts for Chinese tourists and directing students not to visit Japan and blocks on the screening of Japanese movies in China. It resulted in military tensions, prompting a Chinese live-fire exercise in the Yellow Sea, patrolling by Beijing’s coast guard near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and Tokyo’s deployment of missiles on the Japanese island of Yonaguni, near Taiwan.

Why does Taiwan matter to India?

However, in response to the China-Japan spat, India has not made any reaction and also has not made any statement during the brief bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Takaichi on the sidelines of the G20 summit, which was held in Johannesburg. The Institute of South Asian Studies highlighted in its research paper that the China-Japan crisis plays a vital role for India as it puts New Delhi in a sensitive position because it reflects the country’s uncertainty on key questions confronting its foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific. There are three key questions raised by the China-Japan spat to which New Delhi has no answer.

First, India faces a delicate balancing act when it comes to Taiwan and the growing rivalry between the United States and China. As tensions in the Taiwan Strait continue to rise, many countries are being pressured to take a clearer stance on Taiwan’s international status. While India has strengthened economic, technological and cultural ties with Taiwan in recent years, it has remained cautious about crossing Beijing’s red lines. New Delhi has also maintained strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan’s status, avoiding any formal shift in policy.

In the event of a military conflict over Taiwan, India is unlikely to directly intervene despite the significant economic and security implications. However, it could still be drawn into the crisis. The United States may seek logistical support or access to strategic locations such as the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, placing India in a difficult position. At the same time, China could attempt to pressure India through diplomatic threats or military actions along their disputed border, complicating New Delhi’s response, the report says.

Second, India faces a complex challenge in balancing its growing partnership with Japan and its relationship with China. Japan has become one of India’s key economic, technological and strategic partners, making the relationship increasingly important. However, India is unlikely to fully align with Japan on contentious issues such as Taiwan or the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, which could trigger conflict with China. Supporting Japan on matters tied to Beijing’s core interests risks undoing years of efforts to stabilise India-China relations and could reignite border tensions. Ultimately, New Delhi remains undecided on whether China is a long-term adversary requiring closer strategic alignment with Japan.

Third, India’s role in the US strategy to counter China is becoming less certain. While India-US ties have partly been built on balancing Beijing, the Trump administration has adopted a more transactional and less confrontational approach toward China. Washington’s cautious stance on Taiwan and efforts to encourage de-escalation in China-Japan tensions suggest a shift in priorities. This evolving approach raises questions about how central India will remain to US efforts in the Indo-Pacific, the report further added.

Meanwhile, Japan's Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is on a three-day visit for the 16th India-Japan Annual Summit from July 1-3. The External Affairs Ministry stated that the Summit will provide an opportunity for both nations to review and strengthen the full spectrum of bilateral cooperation and exchange views on regional and global issues of mutual interest.