Explained: What is at stake during Xi Jinping’s Central Asia trip?

In what would be his first foreign trip since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, Chinese President Xi Jinping is anticipated to meet with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, during a trip to the neighbouring Central Asian country of Uzbekistan this month.

Xi, 69, has participated in international conferences via video link, but his and other top Chinese officials' physical absences have cast doubt on Beijing's objectives in terms of international politics and trade. In order to speak at a ceremony honouring the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong's transfer from British to Chinese rule, Xi only travelled outside of mainland China for one day on July 1. 

Since the pro-democracy demonstrations in 2019, Xi has presided over a broad crackdown on civil rights in the city, with opposition voices either being imprisoned, forced into exile, or frightened into silence.

Putin will reportedly meet with Xi during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan, according to Russian media. A few weeks prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the two last spoke in January in Beijing. 

They jointly stated in a statement at the time that their relationship had "no limits." Since then, Beijing has resisted calling Russian aggression an invasion or even criticising it, while simultaneously decrying sanctions against Moscow and blaming Washington and NATO for inciting the crisis.

As he runs for and is likely to win a third five-year term as Communist Party leader, Xi is at a pivotal juncture in his political career. This is against precedent, which forbids members of the party's all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee from serving more than two terms in an effort to prevent a recurrence of Mao Zedong's one-man dictatorship. 

There are no explicit threats to Xi since the party, which tolerates no opposition, has complete control over politics, information, and the media. Discontent has occasionally been expressed, though, about his consolidation of power, the economy's steep slowdown, the unrelenting anti-corruption effort that has targeted political rivals, and the tight "zero-COVID" procedures that call for lockdowns, quarantines, testing, and masking that have taken a toll on the economy and society.

At the same time, China's human rights record, its frequently abrasive diplomacy, its claims of sovereignty in the South China Sea, and its threats to invade Taiwan have caused relations with the United States, Australia, and much of Europe to deteriorate. All those things have led to Xi's seeming reluctance to travel abroad for state visits and international conferences, along with COVID-19 travel worries.

The eight-member SCO, which also comprises the majority of the former Soviet Central Asian states, India, and Pakistan, is dominated by China alongside Russia. In what was formerly Moscow's backyard, China has exploited the bloc to increase its influence. This includes participating in international military drills to show off the capabilities of its rapidly upgrading armed forces. Additionally, China views the alliance as a counterbalance to American and NATO partnerships in the Asia-Pacific.

The U.S. exit from Afghanistan and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has received, at best, tepid support from most of the other SCO members, have altered the regional dynamic recently. At a time when relations with the United States are becoming more tense over trade, technology, Taiwan, and other issues, Xi may be hoping that a meeting with Putin will strengthen domestic perceptions of him as standing up to Western opposition to the Ukraine war and bolster his nationalist credentials.

The overseas trip, which came right before the party congress, would also demonstrate that Xi is confident in his standing and support among the 96 million party members, his six counterparts on the Politburo Standing Committee, and the commanders of the party's potent military wing, the People's Liberation Army. The party continues to be shrouded in secrecy, and top leaders usually never make travel plans public until the very last minute, or even after they have already returned.

Putin and Xi will meet on September 15–16 in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, according to Russian Ambassador to China Andrei Denisov, who was quoted by Russia's official news agency, TASS. 

China's status as the second-largest economy in the world and a crucial link in supply chains for products like cellphones and dishwashers will be strengthened by Xi's attendance at a summit of the Group of 20 leading affluent and developing nations in Indonesia in the middle of November.

Separately, China has informed Thailand that, "if he is not preoccupied with other responsibilities," Xi will attend a meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Bangkok soon after the G-20. 

An APEC and G-20 trip is frequently combined. Neither event will have Xi in attendance, according to China.