Explained | How Lukashenko emerged as key player to resolve Wagner situation

The Wagner revolt may be over but the world has notyet stopped analysing the situation. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is in its second year and things seem to be moving slowly for both sides, atleast for now. Given the high-stakes gamble of Russian President Vladimir Putin still being played, the possibility of a coup woke up even the sleepiest of international politics enthusiasts.

While it was still unclear how the situation would develop, memories of the 1991 break-up of Soviet Russia seemed not too distant. Putin, the all-powerful strongman of Russian politics and the face of its international image, suddenly saw himself challenged by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner group mercenaries who have been furthering Russian strategic causes in a number of troubled regions in the world, including Ukraine.

But what seemed like the start of an all-out civil war wound up within a day as Prigozhin agreed to fly to Belarus and the Wagner army abandoned its armed march to Moscow.

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The deal brokered by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has seen Prigozhin going into exile to Belarus. However, Prigozhin is still under investigation and the charges against him for organising armed rebellion have not been dropped, reported Russian news agencies on Monday,

The 'last dictator' of Europe

Lukashenko is the first and only president of Belarus since it broke out of Soviet Russia in 1991.

He has now saved Putin from a situation he had not faced since he took over Russia.

Hours after Prigozhin's declaration of a 'march' and Wagner's capture of Rostov-on-Don, a visibly angry Putin appeared on Russian television and called Wagner's rebellion 'a stab in the back'. He vowed to punish those responsible and appealed to Wagner fighters to put down weapons.

Watch | Wagner Chief Prigozhin defends decision to stage march

Russia seemed to be headed for internal war as Prigozhin said, “... no one is going to turn themselves in at the request of the president, the FSB or anyone else.”

As the verbal fight raged ontraditional and social media, Lukashenko was reportedly working behind the scenes to end this crisis.

Reportedly, hespent "the whole day" talking with the Wagner chief and "came to an agreement on the inadmissibility of unleashing a bloodbath on the territory of Russia".

Also Read | Wagner chief posts first message since mutiny, says 'march not aimed at overthrowing government'

Things between Putin and Prigzhin heated enough for any of them to climb down. There certainly was a need for an intermediary to diffuse the tension, an intermediary with good relations with bothPutin and Prigozhin. Both of them were compelled by politics to maintain a stern facade.

Lukashenko fit the requirement and Putin approved a conversation between him and Lukashenko.

"It is notable that it wasn't Putin or any of his aides that were able to negotiate [a deal] and had to let Lukashenko do that," Peter Zalmayev, director of the Eurasian Democracy Initiative, told France 24.

According to the Kremlin, Lukashenko personally offered to negotiate peace because he "has been acquainted with Mr Prigozhin for a long time, at least 20 years".

After negotiations, it was decided that Wagner soldiers who rebelled would return to fight for Russia in Ukraine.

Lukashenko was an important player with respect to Russian plans in the region already. He offered Belarus territory as a launchpad to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. He even agreed to host Russia's tactical nuclear weapons.

Just before the Ukraine war, when Russia was increasing the presence of its armed forces near the border, observers and the Ukrainian government itself had fixed eyes on what was happening within the Belarusian border. It was considered to be a foregone conclusion that Belarus will side with Russia before and during the war which at that time, appeared an unimaginable event.

Lukashenko and Putin, the 'authoritarian bros'

Lukashenko spent years trying to keep Moscow at bay. In 2014, when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine, Lukashenko even refused to consider the region as part of Russia. He stalled Russian attempts to build an airbase on one of Belarus' islands.

But come 2020, Lukashenko was in need of a strong international friend.

The elections in which Lukashenko claimed landslide victory were slammed as a sham internationally and people in Belarus held nationwide protests on a massive scale demanding Lukashenko's ouster. The president's back was against the wall.

Putin came to Lukashenko's help and flooded Belarusian streets with Russian security officials who helped authorities crack down on the protests. Media reports suggest that to counter Belarus journalists, Russia planted pro-Kremlin propagandists to create a narrative.

The 2020 protests are widely seen as an event that made Lukashenko entirely dependent on Putin to stay in power.

Lukashenko has sought to return the favour of course. A report by ABC News says that last year, Belarus gave Russia '65,000 tonnes of ammunition, about 100 Soviet-era tanks and 20 armoured vehicles'.

It is being believed that Lukashenko is pushing Belarus into Russian orbit and making it somewhat like a satellite state.

"The Kremlin will likely attempt to coerce Belarus into further integration," the US think tank, The Institute for the Study of War said earlier this year. The think tank was quoted by ABC News.

"Belarus may be pressured into more concessions under the rubric of defending … [it] from claimed Western military and terrorist threats."

Whether he has saved Russia from another breaking-up or simply repaid debt to Putin, depends on how we look at the situation. But one thing is for sure, Lukashenko has etched his name in a global political event that had the potential to spectacularly change almost all equations in the geopolitical arena.

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