Formula One scenarios: Here's all you need to know as title race heads for grandstand finish

Formula One saw a major turnaround on Sunday (Nov 23) as the McLaren pair of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris were disqualified from the Las Vegas Grand Prix. The current copy contains all the scenarios with the initial result where Max Verstappen won the race and Lando Norris finished second. However, the duo was later disqualified, meaning new scenarios will lead the path for the title race. Click here for the updated scenarios of the F1 2025 season, while the following copy mentions scenarios from earlier results.

What are the current standings?

After the Las Vegas GP, Norris leads the title race with 408 points and has a maximum of 60 points (25*2 = 50 points for race winner, 1*2 = 2 points for fastest lap, 8 points for sprint race) to play with. The Qatar GP will also have a sprint race, meaning it will have eight more points to play for. As things stand, Norris’ McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri ranks second with 378 points while Verstappen is third with 366 points. Only the top three have a realistic chance of still winning the F1 title while other drivers are officially out of the race.

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Lando Norris’s F1 title scenario

Currently, Norris is in pole position to win the F1 title with second-placed Piastri on 378 points. Piastri can reach a maximum of 438 points, meaning 439 points will seal the title for Norris. If Norris wins the main race in Qatar, he will seal the F1 2025 title even if the nearest challenger, Piastri, finishes second with the fastest lap and victory in the sprint race.

If Norris collects maximum points in Qatar with the fastest lap and wins in the sprint race and the main race, he will seal the F1 title, as Piastri will drop points as well. This will mean Norris will have 442 points and bag his maiden title with one race to go.

In case Piastri collects maximum points and Norris finishes second, the title race will go down to the final day. In the second scenario, Piastri will have 412 points while Norris, even if he finishes second in the main race and the sprint race, will have 433 points, taking the title to race to the Saudi Arabia GP.

Oscar Piastri’s title scenario

The Australian driver could still reach a maximum of 438 points, but will need Norris to drop points considerably. If Norris ends up collecting 31 more points in the last two races, even if Piastri assures maximum points, the British driver will seal the title. Realistically, Norris must drop a minimum of 31 points while Oscar Piastri must win all available points in the remaining two races to win the title.

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Max Verstappen’s title scenario

Still having a technical chance of winning the title, Verstappen needs nothing short of a miracle to win a fifth consecutive title in F1. The German driver can reach a maximum of 426 points, meaning both Norris and Piastri must finish with 426 or fewer points. This means Norris should drop a minimum of 42 points and collect only 18 points in the remaining two races.

On the other hand, Piastri must drop a minimum of 12 points from the remaining 60 points while Verstappen picks all the available points.

In case above scenario is not satisfied, Verstappen will be officially out of the title race.