Defending champions and hosts Pakistan made a losing start to their Champions Trophy 2025 campaign on Wednesday (Feb 19) as New Zealand got the better of them at the National Stadium in Karachi. Chasing 321 runs to win the curtain-raiser clash, Pakistan lost by 60 runs which now puts them in a must-win situation ahead of their key clash against India on Sunday. Here’s a detailed look at how Pakistan could qualify for the Champions Trophy 2025 semifinal. 

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Here’s how Pakistan can qualify for the CT 2025 semis

At the time of writing, Pakistan have two matches still to play in the group stage of the Champions Trophy 2025, meaning they could reach a maximum of four points if they win those contests. However, a defeat for Pakistan on Sunday could spell the end of their Champions Trophy 2025 campaign before the last group game.

If India beat Bangladesh on Thursday in their opening match, Pakistan’s match against the Men in Blue will become a must-win. A win for Pakistan will bring them level with India, while a defeat will spell the end of the campaign.

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In another scenario, if Bangladesh beat India on Thursday, Pakistan’s hopes of a semifinal spot will remain intact as both will enter Sunday’s high-voltage clash with zero points. In this case, the winner of the India-Pakistan contest will be in pole position to qualify for the semis.

Will Pakistan get knocked out if they lose to India?

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If Rohit Sharma’s side wins against Bangladesh they will enter the India-Pakistan contest with two points while Mohammad Rizwan’s side will be on zero points. In this case, a defeat against India will see Pakistan’s maximum tally reduce to two points and they can no longer finish in the top spot with one match to go. On the other hand, if New Zealand beat Bangladesh on Monday in Rawalpindi, the hosts will face elimination. 

The above scenario will see both India and New Zealand with four points while even a win for Pakistan in their final group match will only see them attain a maximum of two points.