Will China's economic might take Nepal away from India?

Recently, Nepal’s Maoist Party foreign ministerK B Mahara was quick to clarify that his country will not take sides in the current tension (faceoff at Doklam) between India and China. Maoist supremo Prachanda as prime minister of the previous coalition governmenthad, in his first term in 2008, openly followed a pro-China policy. He wanted to use China in balancing the overwhelming presence and influence of India. In ‘looking beyond India,’ he lost his job and eventually admitted that India was the more important power for Nepal. On being restored as the prime minister with Indian orchestration, he has moved to a centrist position. The India-China seesaw has acquired a momentum of its own in Nepal.

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This played out last week as Kathmandu received back to back the Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang. Both India and China are competing to establish a friendly government in Kathmandu and win over the country. Last year, China was ready to give its left arm to restore the pro-China communist government led by K.P. Oli. But in a desperate attempt to stave this off, India sacrificed the constitutional rights of the Terai-based Madhesis. Supporting the Madhesis did considerable political damage to New Delhi. China’s image rose in Nepal at the cost of India’s support of the Madhesi blockade that led to unprecedented anti-India sentiment.

Modern Nepal’s founding father, King Prithvinarayan Shah noted that Nepal is a yam between two boulders and to maintain equidistance it had to balance China and India. Historically, Nepal’s independence was determined not by her own strength, buthow she regulated the power matrix between China-Tibet and India. The country has swayed with the wind, leaning towards the stronger power. But open borders and the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship with India have created a floating population of 6 to 7 million Nepalis including Gorkha soldiers who live and work in India. This umbilical cord is a geographic reality that sits as an uncomfortable truth. Sanju Upadhyaya in his book - Raj Lives On says, “Whoever rules Nepal has to get India’s blessings and keep India’s legitimate security interests in mind”.

After Nepal was declared a secular democratic republic and China was a ‘’risen’’ power, Beijing which had harped on non-interference in the internal politics of other countries, took off the gloves and sought to neutralise and challenge India's presence in South Asia, especially in Nepal. China's vast economic wealth has allowed it to buy influence and friends, establishing deep political ties with all the political parties, including the Madhesis, who frequently burn the Chinese flag. China has expanded its relations with the Nepal Army, conducting their first joint exercise this year after prodding and cajoling Kathmandu. It assists Nepal Police with arms and equipment supplies, training and goodwill visits. Beijing has sought parity with India in terms of treaties, recruitment of Gorkha soldiers and business activities. A number of Chinese study centres and Mandarin language schools have come up. For the first time, Chinese have bagged hydropower project and construction of international airports. In the last decade, Chinese presence and influence have increased dramatically.

Nepal wants to act as a bridge between two of the world’s fastest growing economies and benefit from both. It advocates a trilateral bonding but India does not wish to dilute its special bilateralrelationship with Nepal. China’s interests which were restricted to Tibet now go far beyond. Beijing’s new "Look South policy" is to counter India’s Act East enterprise.

Other than using its economic wealth, it is employing soft power, expanding political clout and even championing Buddhist culture among its followers in Nepal. China is most impressed with Nepal for the way it has managed its 30,000 Tibetans as well as the 17 northern districts which borderChina.

Beijing succeeded in inviting Mahara to attend the prestigious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) conclave and signed the Memorandum of Understanding on Connectivity. In essence, the MoU is repackaging of old projects under BRI. China’s investment in energy, transportation and tourism in Nepal was USD 621 million in 2015-16 of which 42 per cent was FDI.

The Joint Agreement India and China signed in 2015, naming Lipulekh near Kalapani tri-junction as disputed spot between India and Nepal. This is a tricky one as Kalapani and nearby Tinker Post have been subjects of a Joint Working Group between New Delhi and Kathmandu. Kalapani is a revered river, being the source of the mighty Mahakali.

While geography, history, and culture draw Nepal to India, it is China’s geopolitical and economic might that will keep this tug of war going with Kathmandu being at the heart of the menage a trois.