NASA simulation shows that only an asteroid 100% certain to hit Earth would lead to real action

Could we be staring at a scenario where humanity knows that an asteroid has a high chance of impact but no one is able to do anything despite having years to act against it? Something similar was revealed in the summary NASA released after conducting a hypothetical asteroid impact “tabletop” exercise to understand how any likely asteroid impact scenario can be averted. The space agency created a hypothetical asteroid and created possible scenarios around it to see what would need to be done in case something like this became a reality. Nearly 100 people from the United States government agencies participated in the exercise, along with international planetary defence experts.

NASA then released a summary of the exercise which revealed the shocking reality of such a scenario. While NASA has been working to avert any such disaster, participants in the summary pointed out the main problem they might face if an asteroid impact becomes likely.

The simulation had an asteroid with a 72 per cent chance of hitting Earth in 2038, impacting North America, Southern Europe, and North Africa. It later moves too close to the Sun and it isn't possible to study it for another seven months. What do you do in this case, the participants were to decode.

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Lindley Johnson, a NASA planetary defense officer emeritus, said in a press release, that an asteroid impact is the only natural disaster man has the technology to predict. However, despite having 14 years in hand, it might be tough to take action due to one major factor.

Hurdle to taking action against an asteroid

Participants seemed to think that politics might get in the way of action. Something similar unfolded in Leonardo DiCaprio's film Don't Look Up! Johnson says that one of the biggest topics of discussion was how to prove to the leaders that the situation is serious enough to warrant action.

The NASA summary carries anonymous comments, one of which reads, "I know what I would prefer [to do], but Congress will tell us to wait."

Another participant points out that "the political nature of the decision-making" was the most important item of the discussion. They discovered that even if they were technologically ready, they might not be able to launch an anti-asteroid offensive. The participants believed that funding might not be approved by the leadersunless the impact is completely certain to happen.

Besides, 14 years means multiple governments and changing policies, making it harder to stay on track and continue with the anti-asteroid plan, especially since the hypothetical asteroid in this case moved near the sun and still has a 28 per cent chance of not hitting Earth.