Washington DC, United States

A new study has warned that the diseases which get transmitted from animals to humans can increase the count of people who lost their lives in 2020 by 12 times if there is a breakout in the year 2050.

In the study, US biotech company Ginkgo Bioworks stated that the epidemics which are caused by a few zoonotic infectious diseases, which are also known as spillovers, can occur more frequently in future because of deforestation and climate change.

The researchers discovered that there has been an increase in the number of epidemics by around 5 per cent every year between the years 1963 and 2019, with the casualties increasing by 9 per cent.

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"If these annual rates of increase continue, we would expect the analysed pathogens to cause four times the number of spillover events and 12 times the number of deaths in 2050 than in 2020," the study stated.

Numbers probably an underestimate because Covid not included in study

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The researchers, however, added that the figures mentioned in the study are most likely an underestimate because they did not include Covid as the disease failed to meet the strict criteria for inclusion.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has stated that it is "likely" that the coronavirus was transmitted by bats to humans, however, the theory has been disputed by some scientists.

The study, which was published in BMJ Global Health, studied the historical trends for four different types of diseases.

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These diseases belong to the filoviruses group of illnesses, which are the Ebola virus and Marburg virus, SARS Coronavirus 1, Nipah virus, and Machupo virus.

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Throughout the study, the researchers studied more than 3,000 outbreaks between 1963 and 2019 and spotted 75 spillover events which occurred in 24 countries.

The study included epidemics reported by the WHO, as well as the outbreaks which killed at least 50 people since 1963, and historically significant events which included the flu pandemics of 1918 and 1957.

In total, 17,232 deaths were caused by the events, with filoviruses leading to 15,771 casualties and most cases occurring in Africa.

The researchers stated that the evidence from recent epidemics which eventually led to zoonotic spillovers suggested that they "are not an aberration or random cluster" but follow "a multi-decade trend in which spillover-driven epidemics have become both larger and more frequent".

The team stated that "urgent action is needed to address a large and growing risk to global health" on the basis of historical trends.

(With inputs from agencies)

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