Priyanka ko Vanakkam

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra's political debut as the Congress party's general secretary for eastern Uttar Pradesh is, as Prashant Kishor put it, one of the most awaited entries in Indian politics. It has created an unprecedented buzz and was the top trend worldwide on social media. That should make people in the party feel good. The question is what good will it do to the party's fortunes in the coming General Election. Equally important is the question: Why now?

As of now, no one knows whether and how her arrival on the scene will help the Congress party, hurt its principal opponent the BJP or harm the chances of friendly rivals like the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party. If the last of the Gandhis to take the plunge succeeds and the Congress ends up with a score or more Lok Sabha seats in UP besides becoming the main prop of a new government, then pundits and charlatans alike would hold forth on the success formula that did the trick. That is always after the results, never before.

On the other hand are those who believe that Priyanka's entry will wreck the SP-BSP alliance's chances of sweeping UP and boost the BJP's prospects, thereby ensuring the return of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

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Common to those rooting for her and the Cassandras is their view of Priyanka as a game changer. When, in fact, she may be not the game changer, but the game.

Seeing her as a game changer means speculating on the basis of outcomes which are unknowable at this stage. On the other hand, viewing her as the game could help one understand what considerations may have gone into the family's decision to launch her now.

The Congress party's sole aim is to increase its numbers in the Lok Sabha, regardless of whether this is achieved at the expense of the BJP, the SP-BSP alliance or any other party. Splitting the opposition vote has never held back any non-BJP party in electoral contests – every party is in the election, first and foremost, for itself. Thus, there is no reason for the Congress to give precedence to the interests and prospects of the SP-BSP alliance.

In UP, as elsewhere, the Congress party has hit rock-bottom. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the party won two seats and its vote share was 7.5 per cent. And, Rahul Gandhi did not win by a flattering margin in Amethi. The BJP's vote share was 42 per cent and the SP and BSP together accounted for 41 per cent. The assembly elections of 2017 saw the Congress fare even worse – its vote share fell further to 6.2 per cent whereas the SP-BSP together managed 44.2 per cent against the BJP's 39.47 per cent.

The SP's poor showing in the assembly election was blamed on its alliance with the Congress. This made the SP embrace Mayawati's BSP, leaving the Congress to fend for itself as a bit player in a state that elects 80 members to the Lok Sabha.

In the event, the Congress had little choice but to raise the stakes stupendously and go for broke. Which is exactly what it has done. Electoral necessity requires that it cast the BJP as its main enemy. Survival demands that it take votes from whoever else it can. After its recent victories in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, there is no way the Congress can afford to be on the back foot. Any sign of being marginalised, even if by allies, could weaken its governments in Karnataka, Rajasthan and MP.

Two, Congressmen being what they are have always looked to a vote-getter from the family to get them elected, with the party having no base, grassroots cadres and organisational structures in many parts of the country.

Three, while it is all very well to say that the non-BJP parties would decide their Prime Minister after the elections, the Congress has to project itself as the main challenger to the BJP. As matters stand and it became evident at the opposition's Kolkata rally, Rahul is not accorded any precedence over Mayawati and Mamata Banerjee.

With Sonia Gandhi retiring, the party would be bereft of a woman leader. This is a fraught deficiency in a party where, after Jawaharlal Nehru, it is two women – Sonia and Indira Gandhi – who were its most powerful leaders for long periods in the last 50 years. After Nehru, it is only under Sonia that the Congress got elected for two full terms. And, in history, Indira as a leader who won a war and split an 'enemy country' would occupy more pages than even Nehru.

These, among other considerations, left Priyanka as the only game the Congress could have played in the hope of a hawa turning the electoral tide.


(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)