Merger wave in Nepal: Where is it heading?

New Delhi, Delhi, India

By

Binod Prasad Adhikari 

On May 6th, 2019, Nepali politics witnessed the dissolution of two parties and the birth of a new party - “Samajbadi Party, Nepal”.

The Federal Socialist Forum-Nepal of Upendra Yadav, incumbent minister and Naya Shakti of former PM Baburam Bhattarai fused together to give birth to a new party with a socialist ideology. But the question arises - will they survive till the upcoming elections?

Safe landing for Dr. Baburam Bhattarai

Unification of FSF-N and Naya Shakti, with no surprise, is safe-landing for Dr. Baburam Bhattarai because of the contingency he faced during the 2017 elections.

Once a prime minister and finance minister from the then largest party in Nepal, Dr. Bhattarai formed the Naya Shakti, Nepal in 2016 and fought the election. All he got from the election was the title of “Independent Party” because of the newly introduced provision.

As Bhattarai is the only leader representing Naya Shakti Party in the lower house and sat idle, he thought of going onboard the merger process. With FSF-N recognised as a national party of Nepal with 16 seats in total, it would have been an opportunity for him to go onboard the government again and also would increase the representation in the parliament.

Questions loom over the agenda of constitution amendment

Upendra Yadav, once led the Federal Alliance and went onto the streets denouncing the constitution and Dr. Baburam Bhattarai who showed his reservation on the constitution now have vowed to fight together.

But there is speculation over the agenda of constitution amendment, a political issue which is sure to have a long run with no endpoint.

“After the amendment of the constitution the Madhesh-based parties would not have any political agendas then what will they do after it? Because of it they don’t think that it is needed right away or instantly. The government on the other hand also is not in a condition to accept it because the spirit is lacking to fulfill any demand,” Prakash Timalsina, senior journalist in Nepal as well as Madhesh analyst has claimed in an interview with ANI.  

But the leader on May 6th tried his best to convince the public over the continuation of previously made demands.

“I want to make it clear; now, issues whether concerned with Madhesh, indigenous- tribal groups, so-called-Dalits, sexually discriminated groups, minority groups or any marginalized groups, those who are discriminated and facing inequality forcefully and intentionally, to ensure their rights and authorities, their issue of identity, representation, the more powerful and stronger party than before, the Samajbadi Party, Nepal has been formed,” Upendra Yadav had said while addressing the function.

Increased challenge for two-third majority government?

The incumbent government with 174 seats out of 275 in the lower house of the Himalayan nation has the support of the Federal Socialist Party-Nepal which has 16 votes. With the merger of the Naya Shakti, Nepal, the number of seats reached 17 equaling with another Madhesh-based party the Rashtriya Janata Party-Nepal with the same demand of constitution amendment.

With rising criticism of the government, the new force can be an alternative power against the monopoly of the incumbent government. 

In the case of RJP-N and the Socialist Party, the parties demanding the amendment in the constitution is sure to grow stronger and challenge the government.

It is also sure that the opposition Nepali Congress which has always been fighting with the government also join the new force in protest against the current government which also can be the supportive part for the alternative power.

Eyes on the Election lying years ahead

It’s only been about a year and a half since the new government, the very first of Federal Republic Nepal was formed under Prime Minister KP Oli. But the parties already have started preparation for elections which lies about three years away and has a high chance of change in the leadership of the government.

While announcing the party merger, the two communist leaders of Nepal - KP Sharma Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal - have had an agreement to go on with bi-chairman system until the general convention and both will take the turns to lead the government. (https://thehimalayantimes.com/kathmandu/uml-maoist-centre-unify-party-named-communist-party-nepal/)

As the former Communist Party of Nepal- Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) and Maoist Center went into the merger process only after coming good in the local elections, parties demanding amendment in the constitution are also attempting for same.

The leaders who have now felt the essence of political unity, shared the issue on Monday (May 6th, 2019). In case of the merger between RJP-N and Socialist Party, the power of the warring party would increase but the question is whether the Socialist Party, Nepal would remain onboard the government or simply quit, despite its continuous threat to walk out.

Chance for Dr. Bhattarai to get onboard the cabinet?

As Dr. Baburam Bhattarai already has experience as a finance minister at the time when he was applauded for making a functional budget in 2008, he again is seen as a probable candidate for the post.

Incumbent finance minister Yubaraj Khatiwada, once the Governor of Nepal’s central bank is being criticised for his inability to perform. Khatiwada is also the member of the upper house had got only two years tenure out of which one and half years have already passed. He is expected to step down in the mid-year in the coming fiscal year.

Though the successor of Khatiwada is yet to be identified or announced, Bhattarai is the likely candidate for finance minister bypassing Surendra Pandey who also is in the fray.

What to expect?

It’s better to take the merger wave in Nepal witnessed now as the continuation of the power-building and lust for power of politicians. 

Though leaders have claimed to fight for the right of the people from all sects and backgrounds, one shouldn’t forget that the Federal Alliance formed in 2015 had collapsed because of the mistrust and misunderstanding between the madhesh-based leaders who had the same issue of amendment in the constitution.

Now, with the merger of the party, the commitments thus made has expanded, demanding the expansion of the space and capacity to hold others. Otherwise, like the case of Federal Alliance, the Socialist Party which is being watched with keen interest also would end like that of the past.

But with the increase in concentration and respect for each other, the party eventually can lead to a higher position, ultimately shrinking the number of political parties as well as turning the dream of people to see an alternative force into reality.

(Disclaimer: Binod Prasad Adhikari is a Nepali Journalist. Views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or Zee group.)