Ceasefire undermined by Pakistan's rogue commanders: Strategic options for New Delhi

The recent wave of drone-based greyzone warfare launched from Pakistani soil has once again heightened tensions along the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB). Despite explicit ceasefire understandings reached at the Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) level talks, rogue commanders in Pakistan's Army continue to violate these agreements by dispatching armed drones into Indian territory.

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This greyzone threat has triggered significant disruptions in civilian aviation. Forward airports in Jammu, Punjab, and Rajasthan have been put on high alert, and a series of flight cancellations has ensued. The Pakistani drone incursions—primarily using Turkish-made Asisguard Songar drones capable of surveillance and lethal payload delivery- pose a serious challenge to our security architecture.

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However, these drone attacks are not merely a military provocation but reflect deep-seated fissures within Pakistan's military establishment. Credible intelligence indicates a widening schism between the Pakistani Army Chief, General Asim Munir, and disgruntled local commanders on the ground. Munir, despite his hawkish public stance towards us, appears strategically invested in maintaining a ceasefire arrangement, likely due to Pakistan's severe economic distress, international isolation, and ongoing internal insurgencies.

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The Pakistan Army's organisational structure highlights this internal discord's sheer gravity. The DGMO reports directly to General Munir, implying a strict vertical alignment of strategic decisions. DGMO-level meetings and resultant ceasefire agreements explicitly bear Munir's strategic imprint. Given that recent ceasefire negotiations occurred with his direct concurrence, it is evident that General Munir himself seeks to stabilise the Indo-Pak front, at least temporarily.

Yet, this strategic clarity at the top does not resonate with frontline commanders. Reports of unauthorised drone launches illustrate an alarming degree of insubordination and operational autonomy among local commanders, reflecting internal dissatisfaction and possibly ideological differences within Pakistan's military ranks. This discord mirrors historical incidents, notably during the 1999 Kargil conflict and the 2019 Pulwama attack, where rogue Pakistani military actions precipitated severe diplomatic and military fallout for Islamabad.

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We now face a complex strategic challenge. To counter continued violations, calibrated military responses are imperative. Precise surgical strikes on identified drone launchpads along the LoC and IB can effectively degrade Pakistan's drone capabilities, establishing credible deterrence without causing excessive escalation. Our demonstrated capability and international backing for such targeted operations, such as the 2016 surgical strikes and the Balakot airstrikes in 2019, lend weight and legitimacy to this option.

Furthermore, if Pakistan responds by restricting Indian airspace or civilian aviation operations, we should leverage Prime Minister Modi's established doctrine of robust reciprocity. Specifically, we must prepare to respond decisively by enforcing an operational shutdown of Lahore Airport, Pakistan's busiest aviation hub. Such a measured yet firm retaliation emphasises our nation's resolve and effectively communicates strategic boundaries to Islamabad's military leadership.

While General Munir may desire temporary peace to consolidate Pakistan's strategic and economic stability, persistent operational insubordination among his field commanders introduces unpredictability into Indo-Pak relations. Our strategic calculus, therefore, requires decisive yet proportionate military actions backed by robust diplomatic initiatives to manage and mitigate this evolving threat landscape.

Lieutenant General Dushyant Singh (Retd)is currently DirectorGeneralofCentre for Land WarfareStudies (CLAWS), an independent Think Tank of Indian Army on strategic studies and Security related issues.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)