“The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.” — Thomas Jefferson

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South Asia is witnessing a shifting geopolitical landscape, with intelligence operations playing an increasingly significant role in shaping regional dynamics. China’s expanding intelligence network, primarily orchestrated through its Ministry of State Security (MSS) and supported by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), is altering the security balance in the region. The China-Pakistan alliance, once viewed as a strategic partnership, is evolving into a more structured effort to extend Beijing’s influence, not just in Pakistan but also in Bangladesh.

The implications of this intelligence expansion go beyond information gathering; they indicate a broader strategy aimed at influencing decision-making processes in South Asian nations.

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Pakistan, deeply entangled in China’s economic and security initiatives, offers a case study on how such engagements can shape national policies. Bangladesh, historically known for its independent foreign policy, now finds itself at a crucial juncture as Beijing seeks to deepen its strategic footprint. If this trend is not addressed in time, it could significantly impact the region’s long-term security architecture.

Western intelligence assessments have highlighted China’s increasing penetration into South Asian political and security structures. Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described the Chinese Communist Party as a “central threat” in global geopolitics. This observation holds relevance in South Asia, where China’s intelligence operations are expanding beyond Pakistan into Bangladesh. Given the scale of these activities, India must remain vigilant and proactive in countering this evolving security challenge.

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China-Pakistan: A Deepening Intelligence Partnership

For decades, China and Pakistan have projected their “iron brotherhood” as an enduring partnership. However, the growing intelligence collaboration between the two countries underscores an increasingly asymmetric relationship. Beijing’s influence over Pakistan’s security establishment has grown significantly, with MSS playing a key role in intelligence operations.

Recent developments suggest that Pakistan and China are expanding their intelligence cooperation beyond their traditional areas of collaboration. Pakistan’s recent access to Bangladesh’s Mongla Port, the first such development in 53 years, has coincided with an increase in intelligence engagements between Beijing and Islamabad. While this may appear to be an economic arrangement, the strategic implications suggest a broader pattern of influence-building in South Asia.

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Pakistan: A Template for Influence in Bangladesh?

Pakistan’s experience with growing Chinese involvement in its defence and intelligence ecosystem offers a glimpse into how China could extend similar influence in Bangladesh. Reports suggest that attacks on Chinese personnel working on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) have notably reduced, even as other security threats persist. This has led to speculation that Beijing is engaging directly with local actors to protect its interests, minimising reliance on the Pakistani military. Such methods could serve as a model for future Chinese engagement in Bangladesh.

Further highlighting Beijing’s influence, defence and security insiders have claimed that China is establishing an intelligence facility in Karachi. The reported facility, equipped with a command-and-control centre and advanced surveillance infrastructure, could enable China to closely monitor regional developments.

Also read: China, Bangladesh agree to advance Belt and Road Initiative cooperation

If such a development can materialise in Pakistan, similar intelligence collaborations in Bangladesh remain a possibility.
China has also leveraged economic investments to deepen its engagement with Pakistan, particularly through strategic projects such as Gwadar Port and infrastructure development initiatives. This pattern is increasingly visible in Bangladesh, where China’s involvement in infrastructure projects has expanded significantly. While these projects are ostensibly economic in nature, they may lead to long-term strategic dependencies that shape Bangladesh’s security policies.

Additionally, China’s cybersecurity operations have grown more sophisticated, with reports indicating that MSS-backed hacking groups have targeted Pakistani government networks. If such cyber tactics have been used in Pakistan, they could be deployed elsewhere in South Asia, including in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh: A New Theatre for Intelligence Operations?

Bangladesh’s evolving foreign policy landscape has attracted increased interest from both China and Pakistan. Recent reports suggest a surge in diplomatic and intelligence exchanges between Dhaka and Islamabad, with some high-level meetings remaining undisclosed. This has fueled concerns that Bangladesh could become a focal point for new intelligence operations in the region.

Pakistan’s increased access to Mongla Port is a noteworthy development, drawing parallels to China’s earlier economic footholds in Pakistan. Given the historical complexities in Bangladesh-Pakistan relations, this engagement warrants close monitoring.

Additionally, reports have surfaced suggesting that some Pakistani diplomatic personnel in Dhaka have engaged in activities aimed at influencing key Bangladeshi institutions. Similar tactics have been observed in Pakistan, where intelligence networks have played a role in shaping domestic security policies. If left unchecked, such developments could have wider implications for regional stability, particularly given Bangladesh’s geographic proximity to India’s strategically significant Chicken’s Neck corridor and the northeastern states.
China, for its part, has already supplied Bangladesh with military assets such as submarines and surveillance drones, reinforcing Dhaka’s reliance on Chinese defense technology. Intelligence sources suggest that Beijing is also providing cyber warfare training to Bangladeshi personnel, which raises concerns over potential cyber espionage risks. These activities indicate a long-term strategic engagement, with intelligence cooperation forming an integral part of China’s outreach in Bangladesh.

The Regional Intelligence Landscape: India’s Strategic Response

China’s expanding intelligence operations in South Asia present a complex challenge for regional stability. Through strategic partnerships, economic investments, and intelligence collaborations, Beijing is steadily increasing its influence in Pakistan and Bangladesh. While these engagements may be framed in economic or security terms, their long-term impact on regional geopolitics cannot be overlooked.

India, as a key regional power, must adopt a comprehensive approach to countering these developments. This includes strengthening diplomatic engagements, bolstering intelligence-sharing mechanisms with friendly nations, and enhancing cybersecurity capabilities. Proactive measures to engage Bangladesh diplomatically will be critical in ensuring that its strategic autonomy remains intact. Additionally, fostering regional security partnerships can help mitigate the risks posed by external intelligence influences.

South Asia’s future security landscape will be shaped by how effectively regional powers address these intelligence challenges. The need for vigilance, strategic foresight, and sustained diplomatic engagement has never been greater.