Escalating big power contest on Taiwan: Can it lead to war?

New Delhi Updated: Aug 05, 2022, 04:37 PM(IST)

Pelosi visits Taiwan Photograph:( AFP )

Story highlights

Chinese strategist Qiao Liang, a retired PLA Air Force Major General has warned that taking Taiwan by force is "too costly".

Backdrop

Chinese President Xi Jinping is seeking to hide his humiliation over US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. 

Xi's premature and unjustifiable warning to the US about the visit caused him embarrassment, and Pelosi's purposeful visit after the warning not only hyped it, but humiliated him.

China is using its "Three Warfare Concept" which entails public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare along with aggressive military posturing, air violations, firepower power exhibition and some symbolic economic boycott of Taiwan, thus creating heightened tension around Taiwan as a face-saving exercise to amuse its domestic constituency. 

China is attempting to turn it into an opportunity to stoke national sentiments in favour of Xi Jinping on "anti America" theme highlighting the Chinese mutilated version of his heroics to ensure that he doesn’t lose out on his third term in the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) later this year.

The US side has likewise been under similar pressures. Following the announcement of Pelosi's visit and the contentious debate between President Xi Jinping and Joe Biden, the US found itself in a difficult situation.

The USA was unable to cancel the trip in response to Xi's warning because doing so would have indicated that Joe Biden was caving in to Chinese pressure. 

This would have been catastrophic for the Biden administration, which is already struggling to recover from the disaster in Afghanistan and the difficulties brought on by the Russia-Ukraine War. Although the visit was a risky move, it is still unclear whether the US will follow it up by replacing strategic ambiguity with strategic clarity to support Taiwan in any prospective Chinese attack or not.

Can it lead to war?

With unprecedented military posturing by China, live missile fire east of Taiwan close to its coastline, and US aircraft carrier and maritime forces located not too far, the situation is tense and prone to accidental trigger causing escalation. It does not make any strategic sense for China to invade Taiwan, as it has all the negatives except false bravado, with bright chances of loss of face globally and domestically, in case the operations fail; hence, likely to contend with activities short of war.

Nine Chinese missiles were tracked by Japan, including five that the country said touched down in its exclusive economic zone. Other missiles' flight trajectories are unknown

Nine Chinese missiles were tracked by Japan, including five that the country said touched down in its exclusive economic zone. Other missiles' flight trajectories are unknown. Source: Ministry of Defense of Japan

Chinese strategist Qiao Liang, a retired PLA Air Force Major General has warned that taking Taiwan by force is "too costly". Chinese redline of “Taiwan going nuclear/declaring independence” has not been crossed as yet, giving no justification for China to cross the US red line of "changing status quo by force". Xi Jinping may find it too costly to take such a risk before sealing his third term. 

The military drills near Taiwan have been conducted by Taiwan and US also in the past and the much-publicised blockade of Taiwan through military drills, if prolonged may invite similar military drills by US and other democracies in Malacca Strait too to block Chinese Sea lines of communication beyond the realm of optics of the current Chinese aggressive posture and it is well aware of this vulnerability.

Taiwanese President Tsai has bravely given bold statements during visit of Speaker Pelosi and earlier to take on Chinese aggression. Taiwan with its national spirit, modern arsenal from US, determined armed forces and US backing is unlikely to give a walkover, although the first onslaught of potential offensive will have to be borne by it, till global response gets activated.

Comparisons are being made with Hong Kong, but the major difference is that leadership, hierarchy in Hong Kong and police was manipulated by the CCP, whereas the leadership in Taiwan is strong and resolute refusing to give in to Chinese coercion. The need for amphibious assault due to terrain friction makes Chinese misadventure in Taiwan more difficult than Hong Kong.

Chinese amphibious capabilities to capture Taiwan are suspect, more so if US warships like the USS Ronald Reagan are around. China has enough missile arsenals to destroy Taiwan, but such massive destruction of Han Chinese (95 per cent of the Taiwanese population is Han), who have relations, investments and inseparable linkages with their relatives in the mainland and vice-versa will not go well with domestic population of the mainland. Over two million Taiwanese live in China, mostly in coastal areas and over 20 per cent have married there.

This will also destroy the Chinese and Taiwanese economies which does not suit the Chinese leadership struggling to revive its economy marred by trade war failing BRI and COVID effect. 

China is the top destination for Taiwanese export accounting for approximately 40 per cent of total exports with Taiwan having an overall trade surplus of $104.7 billion in 2021 with China. 

A public opinion poll in Taiwan in 2020 indicated 73 per cent people identified themselves as Taiwanese, who were against China, and 77 per cent supported the democratic movement in Hong Kong and this figure has increased in last two years. 

Getting Taiwanese under its wings will also bring a fresh democratic wave in China which CCP may not be used to handle. Taiwanese people do not want to sacrifice their democratic freedom and prosperity which is the main reason for the success of President Tsai. 

The conflict if imposed by China will be deadly and the Chinese who want to win without fighting are not known for their appetite to accept body bags of Han Chinese for a cause which doesn’t give them economic benefit but takes away its dream of national rejuvenation, as indicated by General Qiao.

Why Taiwan is a US-China issue?

PRC may keep claiming Taiwan to be its domestic issue but it has much greater external dimensions. Diplomatically US may claim to follow "One China" policy but it treats Taiwan no less than an ally.

The Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act of 2019, effective from March 26, 2020 is an indication. The Taiwan Relation Act,1973, Taiwan Travel Act signed 2019 and National Defence Authorisation Act signed earlier this year to facilitate the sale of state of the art weaponry and joint exercises justify the statement. US will always like to trade and strategically partner with democratic Taiwan outside Beijing’s influence and not Taiwan under CCP.

In any potential invasion of Taiwan, the spillover of the battle space to Japan is obvious due to geographic proximity, an ally which US is obligated to protect. 

Chinese initial offensive can be on Taiwan but US could join forces with its allies in the region to use their sea and air advantages to cut off Beijing’s maritime lifeline in and outside South China Sea. 

Chinese supply lines outside the strategic Nine dash line are still vulnerable to choking and it will draw out PLA to get into war outside its comfort Zone.

Taking Taiwan by force, therefore involves mobilisation of all its combat resources, expecting an escalation from limited war to an all-out war, as the operation amounts to crossing US redline of "no change in status quo of Taiwan”. Economically Chinese heavy reliance on the US dollar is far from over and such a war over Taiwan would be a massive economic blow to China that would see capital flooding out and companies moving out of the country much sooner than it thought.

Way ahead

If Chinese aggressive posturing, air incursions and military drills announced for four days end as scheduled without escalation, may be that situation may still remain under control, as US and Taiwan have also done military drills in that region earlier. 

If it escalates into an attempt to unite Taiwan by force, it will certainly up the ante with US, prove China as an irresponsible bully, may lead to loss of life of Han Chinese both ways, lead to economic destruction of its one of the largest investors and jeopardise China’s goal of national rejuvenation. 

Internationally, China may have miscalculated US resolve and Taiwan’s resistance and all may not go their way. If Chinese ambitions grow beyond global tolerance, it has bright chances to bring rest of the world against China. While the visit of Nancy Pelosi may have given a strong message to China, but the US resolve is still under test because Taiwan can’t be expected to handle Chinese aggression alone, more so if it has been hyped by super power contestation. 

US therefore must consider starting similar military exercise in Malacca Strait with other navies to remind China of its vulnerable SLOC before it starts blocking Taiwanese shipping.

The aggressive posturing in Taiwan Strait, South and East China Sea will continue, even if the current crisis slows down. PRC’s aim is to pressurise President Tsai not to declare independence, keep pressure on, hope DPP loses next election and work out favourable arrangements with opposition likely to be favourable to China. Neither China nor US want war, but none wants to give walkover as well, hence this strategic gaming and posturing is on and will continue.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

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Major General SB Asthana, SM, VSM

Globally acknowledged Strategic and Security Analyst authored over 400 publications. Veteran Infantry General with 40 years of experience in national and varied international fields. Held various key appointments in Army and UN. TV commentator, Speaker in various Strategic, Military forums, UN Organisations, and Universities. Interviewed by various National and International news channels/newspapers/organisations on strategic, military and UN-related subjects.

Currently On Governing/Security Council Confederation of Education Excellence CEE, International Organisation of Education Development (IOED), and other UN Organisations. On Advisory Board of Global Advisors Consultants Corporation, member Expert Group Challenges Forum, IOED representative in UN Headquarters, Vienna, Austria. Chief Instructor, USI of India, the oldest think tank of India. Former Director-General Infantry in Indian Army. Distinguished Expert, Bharat Centre of Canada.

Awarded twice by President of India, twice by UN, CEE excellence award for Nation building by Governor of Haryana. Awarded for “International Diplomacy and Global Conflict Resolutions” by IOED twice, a Consultative body for ECOSOC and International Police Commission – IPC India, by former Prime Minister of Moldova.

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