Opinion: Rahul, the underdog?

Obstacles in elections always come out of the blue. They are sudden and have the capacity to change the narrative. Indian elections are far more prone to react to lose talk and emotional pitch. Both Kapil Sibal and Mani Shankar Aiyyar’s comments proved once again that elections can go off the course if organisations fail to control leaders of their extra-curricular activities.

Many in BJP rejoiced that Congress handed over a 'Maut Ka Saudagar' moment to them on a platter till Nana Patole, BJP MP resigned from Lok Sabha calling BJP anti-farmers. It is too early to know about the nature and depth of the damage and whether it is Maut ka Saudagar part 2, it definitely tells us a few things about current politics.

Add WION as a Preferred Source

Despite analysts making broad observations about highly charged urban Gujarat, rural and economic issues have found resonance in the state. It, for this reason, BJP clung to mandir and 'neech' remarks quickly because it could harness latent Gujarati pride. Lastly, the industry which has worked well pillorying Rahul Gandhi have a cause to worry.

Even social media’s response to this issue in Gujarat and rest of India remained very different. Rahul is a dynast and not like Modi who has become Prime Minister out of his own might and will. The only difference is that for the first time instead of being seen as a child of privilege, Rahul is getting sympathy for a simple reason that the people feel that he has received more than his share of brickbats.

BJP should be wary of it. Indira became authoritarian from being strong in a very short period of time. Rajiv Gandhi from being the most honest and fresh politician became a symbol of corruption. The liberal and new age Nehru became weak within a decade and division of power between Sonia and Manmohan led to the theme of PM without authority in 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Rahul who has portrayed as Pappu and a dynast has the capacity to become an underdog. It should worry the government, whether Gujarat is retained or not. It should worry Modi too though he is quick to change and responded pretty quickly to suit boot ki Sarkar jibe which had pinned him as pro industrialist. It is for this reason land bill is still in cold storage.

Internally, what we see today is a different Congress. Politicians like Mani Shankar and Kapil Sibal enjoyed a good amount of autonomy under Sonia which I don’t think will continue under Rahul Gandhi. Within hours, Mani Shankar Aiyyar was suspended, apology issued and BJP was asked to extend a similar courtesy to Congress when their senior leaders abuse Gandhi’s in person.

BJP on the other hands remain fixated on the power of emotional issues. Its campaign which had been lacklustre only picked up after neechand mandir made it to the public domain. Prime Minister was quick to seize the opportunity and milked the statement to best of his abilities. It remains to be seen whether it can recreate the magic of maut ka saudagaronce again.

The controversy shows that BJP wants to ensure that its national campaign remains centred around cultural nationalism and Ayodhya issue. The success of Gujarat will show the way to BJP for 2019 campaign. During 2014, the campaign was around delivering a prosperous India. 2019 may be about strong and united India if the emotional pitch of PM works in Gujarat. Whatever may be the result, the election would be interesting and polarised.

(Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity).