Karnataka, India

Karnataka elections 2023: The incumbent Bhartiya Janata Party may have made tall claims regarding its performance in the upcoming assembly elections in Karnataka, but several pre-poll surveys and opinion polls have indicated the possibility of a hung assembly. Meanwhile, two networks have given BJP an edge over Congress, while two other networks have predicted a win for Congress.

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Pre-poll survey results

The pre-election survey by TV9 and C-Voter predicts that the Congress will win 106–116 seats and the BJP between 79 and 89. The JD(S) is expected to emerge victorious in 24-34 constituencies. ‘Mood of Karnataka’ by Public TV also gave Congress the edge on 98-108 seats, which is below the majority mark of 113. As per the poll, BJP will win 85-95 seats in the state while JD(S) will win 28–33 seats.

The Asianet Survarna News Jan Ki Baat poll gives the BJP an edge over Congress, with the saffron party taking 98-109 seats against the Congress’s 89-97 seats.

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The NewsFirst-Matrize poll predicted that the BJP would win 96–106 seats, while the Congress was predicted to win 84–94 and JD(S) to win 29–34. 

A hung mandate is shown by Vistara News as it gave 88-93 seats to BJP, 84-90 to Congress, and 23-26 to JD(S). According to the survey, there are 27–30 seats where the outcome is uncertain. The pre-election survey by South First-People's Pulse gave Congress 98 seats, with a range of 95 to 105 seats. The BJP is predicted to win 92 seats (90-100 seat range) and the JD(S) 27 seats (25-30 seat range).

Will JD(S) emerge as the Kingmaker?

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If speculations about the hung verdict in Karnataka polls turn out to be true, JD(S) will have the chance to reemerge as the Kingmaker to form the government as it did in 2018. Currently, JD(S) is trying hard to get rid of the “family party” reputation under its leader HD Kumaraswamy.

However, there are some political analysts and members of the party who doubt JD(S) will achieve this goal. The party's highest performance to date came in the 2004 assembly elections when it got 58 seats. The party put up its second-best performance in 2013 by registering victory on 40 seats.

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