Karnataka Elections 2023: How accurate were exit poll predictions last time?

As soon as the Karnataka Assembly elections ended on May 10, 2023, at 6 pm, all eyes turned to the exit polls by various news agencies. Most exit polls for the Karnataka elections 2023 have predicted a hung assembly, with Congress as the single largest party.

However, exit polls are not infallible. While their sample sizes are adequate, they cannot ignore some errors, including non-response biases. Let's look at how accurate the exit polls were for the Karnataka Assembly elections 2018.

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Karnataka Assembly Elections Exit Polls: Accuracy of 2018 Results

The exit polls released by various leading agencies on May 10 show Karnataka might have a hung Assembly with Congress as the largest party. The analysis shows that Congress might win around 109 seats (average), and the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) could win in 90 and 24 constituencies, respectively.

In the 2018 elections, most exit polls by prominent news agencies predicted a hung assembly, with the BJP emerging as the single largest party. The exit polls said it might fall short of the majority mark of 113. The final results of the Karnataka Assembly elections in 2018 announced by the Election Commission of India turned out to be a hung assembly, with BJP as the single largest party with 104 seats. Congress and JDS won 80 and 38 seats, respectively.

The 2018 exit polls predicted the overall trend accurately. However, there were a few wrong predictions about the election results. Most exit polls overestimated the seat share of Congress while underestimating the JDS.

Most pre-poll opinion surveys have also predicted a hung assembly in Karnataka in 2023, with Congress missing the majority mark by a few seats.

Thus, exit polls are a tool to gauge election trends, but they are not foolproof. There have been many instances when poll result forecasts have overestimated or underestimated voting patterns, despite predicting overall results correctly. The Election Commission of India will announce the results on May 13, 2023.

Karnataka Assembly Elections Exit Polls: 2018 vs 2023

Last time, most exit polls predicted a hung assembly with BJP as the single largest party. For 2023, the hung assembly verdict remains the same. However, exit polls predicted Congress as the single largest party. In conclusion, Karnataka might have a hung assembly, according to seven out of ten exit polls. Two have predicted an outright victory for the Congress and one for the BJP.

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(With inputs from agencies)

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